The Narnia 3 Blog

I Hope They Are At Least Good At Medicine

I just finished reading an article on dementia on the Fox News Page. With the title, "Dementia: One New Case Every Seven Seconds" one is taken in by the shock value of the headline. The article begins with some grave and starting statistics:

• There are currently 24 million people suffering from dementia (we assume worldwide, although the article never tells us that)
• There are 4.6 million new cases disgnosed every year.
• The number of people suffering from dementia is doubling every 20 years.
• By 2040 there will be 81 million people suffering with dementia.

Now, no one doubts, especially those who have friends and family who suffer from some form of dementia, that this is a real and serious medical problem. But let's look at the math:

According to the report there are 4.6 million new cases per year. In 20 years that would equal 92 million people; adding the 24 million who are currently diagnosed that equates to 106 million. If the number is only supposed to "double" every 20 years that means, to be accurate, in the next 20 years 58 million people with, or who will be diagnosed with dementia, will have die. That is an average of 2.9 million people per year. Of course, all of this research apparently assumes that the birth to death ratio will remain fixed as well.

Their reseach also indicated that by 2040 (or in 35 years) 81 million people will have dementia. Again, their numbers of 4.6 million per year, added to the 24 million who already are diagnosed, means in 35 years 185 million people will have (or will have had) dementia. Again, to be accurate, 104 million people with dementia will need to die in the next 35 years (that's 2.97 million per year so apparently the death rate has to increase by about 700,000 per year somewhere along the way).

Of course, these numbers are preposterous, especially if you add all of the other special interest reports of various deseases, accidents, and of course tobacco, that cause deaths each year. If all these numbers were to be added together the various studies would have the entire population of the world dead in a very short time.

These numbers, of course are always great "grabbers" for reports, especially those seeking additional funding from the government (which means from tax payers), as a crisis is created. The writers of this story also acknowledge that:

Of course, predictions aren’t always right. The experts note that dementia could grow faster than they expect.

On the bright side, they add that dementia could also drop if new treatments or methods of prevention are found.

I sincerely hope these medical experts are better at medicine than they are at math and that the accountants they use to keep track of the research money they are given are not the same people who generate their statistics!

Posted by Narnia3 at December 16, 2005 3:47 PM | TrackBack