Well, we are now about half way through August and all of the divisional races are up for grabs. The formerly large leads of the Red Sox and the Brewers are gone. The Dodgers (who had the best record in the NL only about 3 weeks ago) have gone into a tailspin and are now in 4th place in the NL west. But the Yankees are charging in the AL East.
Here are a few observations about the contenders:
The Red Sox and Yankees in the AL East: Well, this seems to happen every year. The Yankees are seemingly hopeless, mired in poor play and team dissension. The manager and general manager's job are in jeopardy, etc., etc. Well, they are now only 4 games out and the Red Sox, who seemed to come up with a coup by getting Eric Gagne, have been playing terribly and their bullpen can't hold anything. If the Red Sox end up losing this division and missing the playoffs (see AL West), some heads are going to roll in Beantown.
The Tigers and Indians in the AL Central: This will probably come down to whoever can put together some kind of streak in the last two weeks of the season. Right now, though, I like Cleveland to pull this out. The Tigers will be home for the post season, the wildcard is not coming from this division.
The Angels and Mariners in the AL West: The Angels will drive their fans crazy by playing poorly against poor teams. It just doesn't seem though that there is enough juice on any other team in the west to catch them, and I wouldn't be surprised if they don't end the season with the best record in the AL and in baseball. That being said, the Mariners look like a very good team and I think may end up as the wildcard team.
The Mets, Phillies and Braves in the AL East: The Mets are like Boston. They may very well end up losing this division and not being in the playoffs at all. They have been killed with injuries, their starting pitching (always suspect) has been terrible, their middle relief worse. LoDuca is now on the DL and has generally had a bad season and may indicate the beginning of the downhill part of his career. The Braves helped themselves the most at the trade deadline, but this division is a toss up. My "guess" is that the Phillies pull this out.
The Brewers and Cubs in the NL Central: I just doubt that the Cubs can pull this off. The combination of the Sorriano injury and the tendency of Lou Pinnela to implode under pressure will probably sink the Cubs and the Brewers will win this division (which will still be one of the surprises of the year). The Cardinals are a nice story with Rick Ankiel coming back as an outfielder, but their highly over-rated manager combined with some declining players will keep them a sub-.500 team this year.
The Diamondbacks, Padres, Rockies and Dodgers in the NL West: Arizona has simply been playing out of their minds for about 3 weeks and coupled with the Dodgers dropping from 2 up to 6 behind in about two weeks has put them in a very good position. My only hope as a Dodger fan is that Arizona cannot possibly keep up this pace, and that they tanked for a while last year and then went on a 15-0 run. If they can turn it around and do that again they will still win this division. But things are not well. Lowe is clearly hurt and not pitching well, Penny and Billingsley are pitching great, but getting no runs. The Dodgers simply have stopped hitting. Retaining Hendrickson and Tomko in the rotation is not going to get the job done (it will be hard to imagine a long winning streak with them starting 2 of the 5 games in rotation), but they don't have a lot of other options right now. The Padres and Rockies have moved up really because the Dodgers have played so badly. If the Dodgers don't turn it around, Arizona wins and the Padres are the NL wildcard.
Posted by Narnia3 at August 12, 2007 9:54 PM | TrackBack