In the history of the NLDS 24 of 28 teams who win the series opener go on to win the series, that works out to roughly 92%. So with one win the Dodgers broke the Cubs home field advantage, and judging by history, gave themselves a 92% chance to win the series.
The Cubs, remember, were supposed to plow through the Dodgers and with Ryan Dempster pitching were highly favored to win the opening game. But Dempster couldn't protect an early 2-0 lead and walked 7, finally walking the bases loaded and giving up an 0-2 count grand slam home run to James Loney which put the Dodgers ahead for the game. Derrick Lowe pitched very well and got the win.
The Dodgers, who have a team that could go to the series, need to finish this off. Tomorrow Chad Billingsley, the team's best pitcher, goes against Carlos Zambrano. No one really knows which Zambrano will show up; the guy who pitched a no hitter recently or the guy who has been blown out in several games just as recently.
The Dodgers then get at least two game at home this weekend. Weather may be a factor for Saturday's game. There is a chance of rain (in Los Angeles!) and the 90 degree temperatures we've been enjoying will be completely gone this weekend probaby in the low 60's by game time Saturday night.
A couple of observations as well. Jim Edmonds is no longer an elite center fielder and may, in fact, be a liability. He badly misjudged and misplayed a ball over his head and allowed a double (with an error) to put Blake DeWitt at 3rd which led to another Dodger run. Alfonso Sorreano continued his terrible post-season play for the Cubs. He's really a terrible defensive outfielder and he could easily lose one of these game for the Cubs. Rafael Furcal started at short for the Dodgers, walked twice, struck out twice, fielded his positition well, but wasn't challenged. It will be interesting to see how his back responds to the cold weather. He's always been a really streaky hitter, if somehow he got his stroke and started hitting, the Dodgers chances improve dramatically. Fortunately, Joe Torre did not try to start Jeff Kent. Kent did pinch hit, but would be lucky to be able to run out a line drive to right field.
In the other National League game, Philadelphia beat the Brewers, so they have the advantage. Interesting though, the Dodgers dominated the Phils in the regular season.
The Dodger chances of going to the World Series have improved significantly.
Posted by Narnia3 at October 1, 2008 8:42 PM | TrackBack