The Narnia 3 Blog

The BCS Bowl Predictions for 2009

The BCS system has given all of us another mixed bag of games to watch over the New Year's weekend in a year in which another undefeated team (Boise State) was relegated off to a minor consolation bowl. Yes, I known Boise State lost to TCU by one point, but imagine how difficult it would be to get a group of college players up for a game on Christmas Eve, when they were undefeated and ranked in the top ten. The BCS games this year should have at least one exciting game, one or two competitive games and two blow outs.

Since I'm always willing to put my opinion out on the line, her are my predictions for the Five BCS Bowl Games next week (listed in order of the game):

The Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State January 1st 1:30pm

USC comes in with the best college defense in the country holding teams well under 10 points per game allowing only 93 total all season (unfortunately 27 in the one game they lost to Oregon State and actually 23 in the Stanford game they won handily; so they only gave up a total of 43 points in their other 10 games). Even though they have played a more conservative offense this year, they can still put up 40+ points in a hurry. Penn State (with Big 10 companion Ohio State) was perhaps one of the most over-rated teams this season. Besides the two Division 1a schools they paid to scrimmage with them and a win over a horrible Syracuse team, they also played in the Big 10, which was probably the worst BCS Conference this year (and won't be much better next year). USC hasn't lost to a Big Ten team since 1996. This game won't be close, the one thing going for Penn State is that Pete Carroll almost never runs up the score. Pete Carroll and Joe Paterno do have one good thing in common, they (along with Mack Brown and a few others), intently dislike the BCS system.

Final Score: USC 47 Penn State 13

The Orange Bowl: Cincinanti vs. Virginia Tech Jannuary 1st 5:30pm

In perhaps one of the worst BCS system game contrivances ever, two teams not even in the Top Ten are featured here; locked in because of conference affiliations, at least on Virginia Tech's part. Perhaps the only thing that will save the TV ratings of this game is the fact that the schedulers arranged things so there is no other game anywhere near that time slot. Virginia Tech (9-4) is a weak offensive team with a decent defense and good special teams. Cincinanti (11-2) is a very good overall team with a very hot commodity in its head coach Brian Kelly. Amazingly, the Bearcats have used five different quarterbacks (usually not a good sign) and still put up an impressive offense. The game will be competitive between two middle of the road teams from weak conferences. While this could go either way, I think...

Final Score: Cincinanti 31 Virginia Tech 24

The Sugar Bowl: Utah vs Alabama January 2nd 5pm

This might be the one interesting game of the lot. Utah forced it's way into the BCS by going undefeated and Alabama was undefeated until it's loss to Florida in the SEC Championship Game. While some might see this as Offense (Utah) vs Defense (Alabama), that's not really the case. Utah was only 32nd in total yards and Alabama was a very, very average 60th. In average points per game Utah was 15th and Alabama was 30th. Both of these are defensive teams. Alabama only gave up 167 points all season and Utah only gave up 207. The difference is that if Alabama gets behind and are forced to pass, they are pretty much doomed with their 97th ranked passing offense. I think the Tide, like Penn State, was rather over-rated all year. Utah wants to show that they belong with the "big" programs and they have a strong enough passing game to do it. My prediction...

Final Score: Utah 32 Alabama 17

The Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Texas January 5th 5pm

Welcome to the biggest mismatch of the Bowl Season. Somehow at the last minute, the computer programers figured out a way to put Ohio State into the Top Ten (even though they are ranked 46th in scoring) and are matched against a Texas Longhorn team that arguably should have been in the Championship game (ranked 5th in scoring). Texas scored nearly 200 more points that Ohio State and that might be about what happens in Arizona. Unlike Pete Carroll, Mack Brown has no qualms about running up the score and our prediction is that he will do just that as Texas uses the Buckeyes as their personal protest against the BCS system. OSU has been unceremoniously blown out in its last two bowl games and then were decimated by USC in its only really big game in the regular season (not counting the loss to Penn State). OSU is ranked 104th in passing and only 27th in rushing (and will be going against the Longhorns 2nd ranked rush defense). This game will be largely decided by halftime.

Final Score: Texas 63 Ohio State 9

The BCS Championship Game: Florida vs. Oklahoma January 8th 5pm

The Campionship Game will at least be entertaining. These are at least deserving teams who won two of the more competitive conferences this season. On paper Florida has the stronger defense, but in reality neither team is a defensive giant. These are both powerful offensive-minded teams with very good quarterbacks and excellent running games. Florida gets something of a home field advantage playing the game in Miami. Oklahoma led the nation in scoring at over 50 points per game, but Florida was 3rd. Oklahoma played perhaps a tougher schedule overall, but Florida had to play a much tougher conference championship game. This will be fun to watch and won't be decided until the 4th quarter.

Final Score: Florida 47 Oklahoma 45

PS: If the game goes to overtime, you can probably double those scores and the game will be won on a defense finally stopping a mandatory two-point conversion in about the fifth overtime.

Posted by Narnia3 at December 26, 2008 10:21 AM | TrackBack