I would like to say that I had some really well conceived reason for waiting to talk about the new baseball season until after the first week of play, but the truth is I was just too busy with other things to post something last week.
In terms of actual baseball nothing that happened this week would alter any predictions that I made, with the exception of the tragic death of Nick Adenhart at the hands of another mindless drunk driver (who hopefully will never see another day out of prison in his life) and the effect that will have on an already short-staffed Angels rotation. If they Angels cannot get some quality starts from a patchwork rotation until their injured starters get back they could be in early trouble. Weak starting pitching will pile up innings out of the bullpen which will take a toll later in the season. Perhaps the Angels will sign Pedro Martinez if Pedro relents a little on the delusional amount of money he thinks he should receive to sign.
I spent the bulk of my LAPD career working in traffic accidents and I have no sympathy at any level for people who operate vehicles under the influence of alcohol and/or drugs. I was nearly killed by a DUI driver when I was in college and spent the next 13 months of my life in a cast on on crutches; which makes me one of the more fortunate victims of self-centered, non-thinking buffoons who endanger hundreds of people for every mile they drive.
The DUI problem in professional sports is real (I also know this from experience) and probably more accute in baseball. Bud Selig, the baseball commissioner, instead of largely wasting time and money combatting steroids, HGH, and other "performance enhancers" (which no objective examination would show any enhancement in baseball); he would perform a greater service in establishing some harsh penalties for any baseball personnel, from owners down to bat boys, who are arrested for DUI. Cutting down that problem would actually save lives.
Well back to the actual season. I'm mainly only interested in the National League West, since that's where the Dodgers play. But here are my predictions for the 2009 season:
American League
The Dodgers come out of the first week 4-3, with two of the loses games they should have probably won. One thing is fairly clear in watching the games so far. This is a team that should not have problems scoring runs. The 3-8 hitters could all hit 20+ home runs and I am really looking for Matt Kemp and James Loney to have break out years. Except for Manny in left field, this is as solid a defensive team as there is in the National League. Casey Blake at third is not a statue, but he doesn't cover a lot of ground; but, he doesn't make a lot of errors either.
What I am concerned about with the Dodgers is their bullpen. Wade, Kuo, and Broxton will hold it together, but the others are not impressive so far. I would expect Mota to be replaced by Scott Elbert pretty soon, or perhaps Eric Stults will stay up when Kuroda comes off the DL. The signing of Ohman perhaps makes some sense, but he's clearly not ready and probably should have been sent to AAA or had his spring training extended. I don't think Belisario is quite ready yet either. I am also a little concerned about their bench depth. They have opted to keep Juan Pierre as their 4th outfielder, which to my mind is absurd. Pierre can't play defense and is limited to only center and left. Perhaps they'll figure a way to trade him soon, but they'll certainly have to come up with a better option. The other bench players, DeWitt, Lorreta, and Mientkiewicz give Torre plenty of options there (actually DeWitt and Lorreta are probably better outfielders than Pierre).
The Dodgers play a remarkable schedule almost entirely against divisional teams until the second week of May. They only have a series with Houston and a home series with the Nationals before May 10th. If they can get hot at all, they could get a solid hold on first place pretty early. The NL West is not a strong division again this year. It won't be the worst, I think that title will go to the AL Central. San Diego, despite starting well, may well lose 90+ games this year. San Francisco won't be much better and won't be a .500 team. Arizona now has Brandon Webb on the DL to start the season and is not as good a team as they were last year even with him. The Rockies are just the Rockies, they are not as strong this year either.
Home opener Monday against the Giants. Sweeping the Giants would make a nice start to the homestand.
Posted by Narnia3 at April 12, 2009 7:15 PM | TrackBack