Well, after a lot of upsets, last minute rescues, and a couple of just strange games, this week doesn’t appear to be nearly as interesting. So here are my Week Four predictions. Fortunately, I beat the spread on a couple of games last week and was 4-1, so I’m, 11-4 for the season. There aren’t a lot of really compelling games but here goes:
Game #1: #4 Mississippi at South Carolina. Mississippi may have the best QB in the SEC and thus far they have played well, admittedly against inferior teams. Statistically, these teams are fairly even. The Gamecocks may have the advantage in team speed and are coming off a very good offensive game. I think a #4 ranking is a bit of a reach here. Ole Miss is currently favored by 5. There are a lot of upsets on Thursday nights, take the Ole Ball Coach and the points.
Game #2: #9 Miami at #11 Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech nearly lost last week (and should have) to Nebraska. The Hookies QB is completing less than 50% of his passes and other than a fluke 80 yard pass play against Nebraska, this isn’t a team that can come back quickly through the air. Miami has a top tier QB who is getting better each week. Tech is currently favored by 3. Miami is a current bandwagon favorite, but they’ll win this game and beat an over-ranked Virginia Tech, take the Canes and the points.
Game #3: South Florida at #18 Florida State. Florida State messed up my predictions last week by running over BYU, but they really caught BYU weakened with a couple of key injuries. South Florida is undefeated and is a very solid team. FSU had fallen out of the top 25 after a loss to Miami and a near loss to Jacksonville State, but then, thanks to the BCS-minded pollsters came back to #18 after beating BYU (who dropped to #19, since they had to make them lower than FSU ). I don’t buy it. FSU is a badly coached, badly run, undisciplined team. South Florida is a +114 in point differential after 3 games compared to FSU at +32. The Seminoles are currently favored by 15. I think that the real Florida State shows up this week. Take the Bulls and the points.
Game #4: Illinois at #13 Ohio State. Illinois was supposed to be an up and coming team in the Big 10 this year, but really fell flat in their first game against Missouri. Ohio State struggled against Navy, lost to USC and then came back for a very good win against a talented Toledo team (although OSU forced the game to be at Cleveland Browns stadium so it really wasn’t a home game for the Red Rockets). I’m not sold on Prior as a legitimate QB and Tressel’s play calling has to be backed up by a strong defense. The Illini have a senior (although inconsistent) QB and a strong offense, but a young, but athletic defense. Coach Zook knows he needs a big win and he had a bye-week to prepare. The Buckeyes are currently favored by 18. This is a trap game, OSU should win the game, but take the Fighting Illini and the points.
Game #5: Washington State at #12 USC. OK, we can all admit now that USC is rebuilding and we also know why Aaron Corp was beaten out for the starting QB job. USC still has a BCS game in its sights, but they have a tough game against Cal next week. They can’t look ahead too much. They have to win (and probably win big), but they also need to get a couple of people healthy. Currently the Trojans are favored by 45. If Barkley and Mays play (and they should at least a little) that’s about right. Until the pattern is broken, go with USC big in this home game.
Bonus: Iowa at #5 Penn State: Is Penn State really a #5 team? We will begin to find out this week when they play their first Big 10 game against Iowa. The Hawkeyes are also undefeated, but except for a win last week against Arizona they played a weak non-conference schedule. However, as I ranted last week, Penn State hasn’t played much more than scrimmage worthy teams (and hasn’t traveled away from University Park). In the early non-conference games the Nittany Lions usually run up some 50 and 60 point games, but that hasn’t been the case this year. The game is at Beaver Stadium (why do the Nittany Lions have Beaver Stadium as their home?) and Iowa is banged up on offense, but Penn State has injury issues as well. Penn State is currently favored by 10. Upset Alert: by Monday there are no Big 10 teams ranked in the top 10. Take the Iowa Hawkeyes and the points.
Various Rantings:
#1 Florida (against Kentucky) and #2 Texas (against UTEP) pretty much have walkovers this week. Neither game should be all that close. Although I think Tennessee demonstrated some weaknesses in Florida. Florida intimidates teams perhaps a little more on hype than reality. They are a very good team, but I don’t see them as unbeatable and Tebow, as good as he is, he is a runner, not a QB and when they finally go up against a front line, physical defense and some linebackers who want to knock Tebow around, Florida’s offense will struggle. If Florida gets into a 4th quarter behind and needs to pass for big yards, I don’t know that Tebow is the guy to get it done. Urban Myer might be a little worried about his team, making a preemptive excuse about the flu epidemic in his team.
Last week both BYU and Utah lost games in which they were favored, and naturally, they fell in the polls. But it’s odd how far they fell (BYU fell from #6 to #19 and Utah fell out of the Top 25 entirely). It’s like the pollsters and BCS people just can’t wait for an excuse to drop them as far as possible to keep them out of their little club. It’s really a shame that these really good non-BCS teams have to essentially be perfect to get any consideration, while Notre Dame gets a special dispensation and “traditional powers” in BCS conferences really get a pass even though they play a weaker schedule. TCU is still undefeated but only ranked #15.
For the Pac 10, Washington continues to win and beats Stanford. Cal beats Oregon to get ready for USC and UCLA stays undefeated with a bye week, hoping to get healthy.