Sitting around trying to recover from the flu I find it’s also time do examine the football picks for the week. I did fairly well last week, I only missed one game outright and missed one other on points when Illinois again failed to appear for their game (see below), so I finished 4-2 and am now 15-6 for the season. There are some very good games this week, and another top 5 team could end up losing.
Game #1: #4 LSU at #18 Georgia. LSU has their biggest game of the season next week against Florida but they have been pretty good about not looking ahead in the past. Their problem this season has been is that while they are undefeated they haven’t been that impressive in the process. Georgia is 3-1 but only is +4 in point differential and very nearly lost to Arizona State. Statistically these two teams are nearly identical, with perhaps a slight edge in passing to the Bulldogs. Georgia really has to win this game to stay in contention for the SEC Championship and a BCS bowl, if they lose they might drop out of the Top 25. Georgia is currently favored by 3. SEC teams just beat up on each other (like the Pac 10), home game, really important for Georgia, take the Bulldogs at home.
Game #2: #7 USC at #24 Cal. Amazing how all the noise about how USC seems to lose against an unranked Pac 10 team coming off a big win ended when Cal did the same thing last week. The difference is that USC generally keeps it close (the numbers show that by adding a total of 55 points over the last five years the Trojans would be undefeated with five National Championships) while Cal got blown out by Oregon (who was supposed to be a really good team before they got pummeled by #5 Boise State). It may just be that the reality is that the Pac 10 is really a good conference right now. I would say that the Pac 10 is certainly on par with the SEC and that both conferences have the same problem, they all have to play each other. Cal has one of the top three running backs in the country. USC hasn’t been terribly impressive, but Barkley looks like the real thing. The loss of Johnson would be huge for most teams, but the Trojans have about 20 tail backs. USC is currently favored by 5. Cal has yet to prove they can win the “big game” and that hasn’t been USC’s problem. Despite the injuries, take the Trojans.
Game #3: #8 Oklahoma at #17 Miami. Since the upset loss to BYU and the loss of Sam Bradford the Sooners have rebounded OK, but rather unimpressively against cupcake teams. Both of these teams have big passing attacks, but Oklahoma can also run effectively, something Miami hasn’t really shown yet. Coach Stoops philosophy of not really having the backup QB participate with the first team practices has been covered up by their playing two weak opponents. But this week, against an athletic defense I think his lack of experience will show. Oklahoma is currently favored by 7. I don’t think Miami is a fluke, but with Bradford probably not starting (or being ineffectual) I like the Canes in an upset.
Game #4: #22 Michigan at Michigan State. Michigan is rebuilding and this season has won close cliff-hangers. Michigan State is also in flux and has lost three close games in a row. The old saying is that bad teams lose close games. The Spartans aren’t a bad team, but they aren’t a good team either. State has the advantage in passing, but gives a lot away to Michigan in rushing. The Wolverines are currently favored by 2. Even though this is a rivalry game, I don’t think the Spartans have any emotional reserves left after three really bad loses. Take the rebuilding Wolverines.
Game #5: UCLA at Stanford. This is a game that in theory should be against two Top 25 teams. UCLA is 3-0 and Stanford (a preseason dark horse for the Pac 10 title) is 3-1. On paper this game should go to Stanford, they have superior QB and overall offense. The Bruins had a bye week to get a little healthy and to prepare. Coach Neuheisel has done really well with a team that wasn’t expected to really compete for another year or so. The Indians, err, the Cardinal (the lamest team name at any level) are currently are favored by 7. UCLA is a surprise team this year, Neuheisel always gets something from his team. Take the Bruins and the points at the Farm.
Bonus Game: Washington at Notre Dame. Both of these teams have been ranked in the Top 25 but probably never should have been. The Fighting Irish put together a schedule that should have given them their best opportunity to get into a BCS game. They may still but it doesn’t look that good. They opened by blowing out Nevada, but then lost to Michigan and barely pulled out two games against Michigan State and Purdue (two games they could easily have lost). Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen has turf toe and the news was that he wouldn’t be 100% for the rest of the season (turf toe is really painful BTW). The Washington coaches are very familiar with the Irish from their days at USC and Washington’s defense is playing very well. The bottom line here is that the Huskies are rebuilding (despite their win against USC) and can play lose and they are very well coached. The bottom line at Notre Dame is that unless Charlie Weiss wins out he’ll probably lose his job at the end of the season. But really the two games he must win are this one and on Oct 10th against USC. If he loses against Washington they won’t be playing on January 1st anywhere and if they then lose to USC, Weiss will be collecting a large paycheck for not coaching next year. Notre Dame has not looked impressive at all and are not well coached. The Irish are currently favored by 18 at home. I’m not sure what team the people who make the odds have been watching, but despite the urgent need for a win there’s no way. Take the Huskies and the points.
Various Rantings:
We have to wonder how long Ron Zook can either #1: keep his job, or #2 continue to throw Juice Williams out as his QB. All of the pre-season hype was that the Fighting Illini were an up and coming team and a potential contender in the Big 10. So what have they done? With all of spring practice and the summer to prepare they get blown out by a fairly average Missouri team. Last week with a chance to redeem themselves opening their Big 10 schedule against Ohio State. Illinois had the benefit of having a bye-week to prepare and proceeded to get blown out by the Buckeyes (they couldn’t even cover 18 points!).
In the Big 10 Iowa could be in the driver’s seat. The Big 10 title could come down to the Nov 14th game at the Horseshoe with Ohio State (which will be in the middle of a tough three games, Penn State before and the Michigan afterwards). Each team could have a conference loss by the time the season is over.
#1 Florida has the week off, which is fortunate because Tim Tebow would certainly not be able to play this week and is still questionable next week against LSU. Tebow is a big, tough, player, but one thing is you never know how someone will respond after an injury like this, especially if they have never been seriously injured. #2 Texas also has the week off before they move into conference play against a horrible Colorado team that will serve as little more than a warm up for the big game against #8 Oklahoma.
#3 Alabama has a walkover game against a Kentucky team that can’t really do anything well on either side of the ball. #5 Boise State has maybe their easiest game of the year against UC Davis. Neither #6 Virginia Tech (against Duke), #9 Ohio State (against Indiana) or #10 Cincinnati (against Miami of Ohio) should have any real trouble either this week. I would say that Cincinnati may be the better team in Ohio right now though. Wouldn’t Cincinnati vs Boise State in the BCS Championship game be cool? We who hate the BCS system can only dream.
I'm pretty confident about my Tide this week. Really, the only really challenge for us in the SEC West is LSU methinks. I think, ok maybe it's more of a hope, we can take the Gators in the SEC Championship this year. Whoever wins that game is going to the National Championship thought, don't you think?
Posted by: Joe Blackmon at October 2, 2009 6:33 PM