Coming up on the half way mark of the college football season and now we enter conference play in earnest. There will be several big games every week now until conference championship games. Last week was a mixed bag. A terrible call (that the SEC now says should not have been called, see below) cost Georgia a game and Michigan came up short in OT, so I finished 3-3 and am now 18-9 for the season. There are some very good games this week, and another top 5 team will lose this week.
Game #1: #21 Nebraska at #24 Missouri. Thursday night games have been really good this year and this will be one of the best. The Huskers are re-establishing themselves as a solid Big 12 power and with a win would solidify their standing as a top 25 team again. Nebraska is ranked #1 in scoring defense and 19th in offense. They really should be undefeated with fluky loss to Virginia Tech. Missouri is undefeated and has impressive offensive numbers but it’s largely a mirage. The beat a horrible Illinois team and followed that with wins against Bowling Green (which played them tough for a while), Furman (no comment) and Nevada (who also showed the weaknesses in the Tigers defense). Look for torrential rain throughout the game which favors the defense and power running team. Nebraska is currently favored by 3. The Huskers are the real thing, go with Nebraska.
Game #2: #1 Florida at #4 LSU. The big story here is that Tim Tebow will be a game time decision as to whether he’ll start or not. Since as late as last weekend he wasn’t even allowed to read, watch TV or look at game film, I really doubt it is a good idea for him to play. He’s done two days of light non-contact practice and still isn’t medically cleared to play. In the big picture if they lost without Tebow Florida probably only falls to #5 or #6 (depending on Alabama) and is still in the National Championship picture. But if he plays and gets his bell rung again, he’s probably lost for the season. LSU was lucky to get a win last week at Georgia, but they are at home this week. Florida is currently favored by 7. This is a tough game to call, but even if Tebow plays (which would be a mistake) he’s not a factor and may be a hindrance. Take the Tigers in Death Valley on Saturday night and the points.
Game #3: #3 Alabama at #20 Mississippi. The Tide is a sleeper team for the national championship. It’s pretty clear that three SEC teams can’t/won’t be in the top five by the end of the season. They look to be the odds on favorite to play Florida in the SEC championship game. Ole Miss’ season has been erratic and they clearly were not as good as the pre-season pollsters thought, but this is still a dangerous team at home. Alabama nearly 100 yard advantage int toel offense per game, but that’s only translating into an 8 point per game advantage over Mississippi. While they have an advantage in passing yards, Ole Miss has better receivers and more passing touchdowns. Alabama is currently favored by 7. Even though as a USC fan I need Alabama to lose, I don’t think they do. Take the Tide in a very good and close game.
Game #4: Wisconsin at #9 Ohio State. Wisconsin inexplicably is not in the top 25 despite being 5-0. The come in to the Horseshoe with an advantage (though not huge) in all the offensive categories. Ohio State has probably the best defense in the Big 10 and one of the better in college football. They have held teams in the last few weeks to under 50 yards in rushing. But OSU is living on the edge, if they have a defensive lapse or special teams mistake and get behind by a couple of scores, their offense could have trouble coming back against a front line defense. The Buckeyes are currently favored by 16. After the Badgers, OSU has a couple of easy games and then they end with three very tough games to end the season. The Badgers are undefeated and an upcoming team in the Big 10. The Buckeyes should win, but I don’t think they can cover 16 points, take Wisconsin and the points.
Game #5: #13 Oregon at UCLA. Coach Neuheisel has gotten a lot from a team that is really banged up and is still probably two years from really competing in the Pac 10. Oregon is now ranked where they were before the opening day Boise State fiasco. The Ducks have really beaten up on their last couple of opponents and are probably the only team left between USC and their next Pac 10 Championship (when they meet in four weeks). This game at Pasadena will be a big test of focus for Oregon (who should stick with their 1960’s uniforms). The Ducks are currently prohibitive favorites (this means there are no odds and only someone who wanted to throw away money would take UCLA and no one would take the chance on the upset). UCLA will make this a closer game than some think, but go with the Ducks.
Various Rantings:
In a follow up to our note last week, “We have to wonder how long Ron Zook can either #1: keep his job, or #2 continue to throw Juice Williams out as his QB.” Ron Zook has decided to take option #2. Williams has never been consistent and probably doesn’t even translate to a NFL QB in the draft and he’s been just terrible this year.
The biggest joke in football (college and pro) is the excessive celebration penalty. An SEC official called an “excessive celebration” penalty against Georgia after they had scored a go ahead touchdown with about 90 seconds left in the game. The idea that college players can restrain themselves from an emotional outburst after doing something significant is just silly, it’s contrary to human nature (and normalcy). The penalty should be for taunting, for acting in an unsportsmanlike manner, I have no problem with that. But look what happened to Georgia. Because of the penalty they kickoff 15 yards further back and give LSU great field position, allowing them to score and win the game. Georgia now drops out of the top 25 (which means they will get fewer prime time TV games and have less revenue), they now have no chance of winning the SEC Championship or going to a BCS game, which is a loss of perhaps $5-10 million to the school. The SEC came out and said that the penalty should not have been called, which is little consolation to the losing team.