This is a week filled with trap games and one game the BCS people are watching very closely. Last week only Nebraska let me down in the bonus pick so I finished with a very good 5-1. I’m now 26-12 for the season. There are some very good games this week, and I think another top 5 team will lose this week. BTW, the ranking numbers are now the BCS ranking which came out for the first time last Sunday.
Game #1: #8 TCU at #16 Brigham Young. This is the BCS Watch Game of the Week. Only one non-BCS Conference School is assured of getting into the BCS game picture. Right now Boise State looks to have another unbeaten season coming up. The BCS folks would like, I think, the “BCS Breaker” to be anyone other than Boise State. BYU laid an egg against a now obviously bad Florida State team and lost out on the chance to be undefeated going into this game (and probably still ranked in the top 10). Both of these teams can put up lots of points. This is a classic Mountain West match up and a classic rushing team (TCU) against a traditionally powerful passing team (BYU). But this year the Cougars have a now healthy front line running back as well. I doubt the Cougars will lose very important home games in one season. The Horned Frogs are currently favored by 3. The BCS does not get their wish. Take the Cougars as a “home dog” and the points.
Game #2: #6 Iowa at Michigan State. Iowa is a mysterious team. They nearly lose to Northern Iowa and barely beat Arkansas State. But, they beat Penn State, Michigan (barely) and came back to beat Wisconsin. Their schedule looks soft enough for them to run the table. They do play Ohio State and also have a trap game in two weeks against a better than their record Northwestern team. Michigan State has just been trampled this season is is 4–3. But, they are better than Iowa in all the offensive categories. This game is currently a push, with Michigan State being a slight computer favorite at home. The Hawkeyes have never gone 7-0 and if as a supposed #6 team they can’t even be favored against a 4-3 conference opponent what does that tell you? It tells me the streak comes to an end and by Sunday even contractual obligations will not allow a Big 10 team to be in the top 10.
Game #3: #13 Penn State at Michigan. Michigan is a halts and starts team that is improving, Penn State is a team that has built its records by playing Sister’s of Mercy and their Associated Colleges (they really have the softest schedule imaginable). Their only game against an above average team was a loss to Iowa. Penn State’s offense is slow and unathletic and their defense is good, but on the field too long every game. Here’s the other big Penn State problem, they kick field goals and don’t score touchdowns. They are ahead of Michigan in both passing and rushing offense, but behind at the pay window, the Wolverines average 8 more points per game than Penn State. The Nittney Lions are currently favored by 7. As always take the “home dog” and the points, Wolverines in a good game.
Game #4: Oregon State at #7 USC. Twice in the last three years lowly Oregon State has been the vehicle to upset USC’s national championship aspirations. While the Trojans are coming off a big, emotional road win and have a huge road game next week at Oregon (which will decide the Pac 10 Championship and determine if USC can make it to the National Championship game) this could be a trap game. On paper this isn’t even close, the Beavers have nothing at any level to hang their hats on for this game, except that they have upset better Trojan teams in the past. USC is simply superior at every position in all three parts of the game. The Trojans are currently favored by 21. This is an exception to the “Home Dog” rule of thumb. The Trojans have a little revenge on their minds and will not fall into this trap game, take the Men of Troy.
Game #5: Tennessee at #2 Alabama. Alabama is another SEC that often looks better than it is because of their weak scheduling (Florida International, North Texas and a really late season scrimmage against Chattanooga???). Their defense is really, really good, which is the only reason they’ve won their last two games. Because their offense has looked terrible, I have a feeling this team is a little overly hyped for no real reason beyond their star running back Mark Ingram, against whom Monte Kiffen should have a really nice scheme. Alabama is currently favored by 14. This is a classic trap game for the Tide before a bye-week and then the big game against LSU. Lane Kiffen is doing a better job with the Vols than people think and the weekly competition is starting to pay off. Upset of the week, take the Volunteers of Rocky Top and the points.
Various Rantings:
The SEC has suspended the entire officiating crew that handled (or mangled) the LSU – Georgia two weeks ago with a series of questionable calls, including one that we commented on last week that cost Georgia its season. The same crew handled the Florida – Arkansas games last week and had probably even a worse day of officiating (it’s that’s possible). A personal foul was called on Arkansas that the Commissioner of the SEC said had “no video evidence to support the call.” This call, in all probability changed the outcome as Florida had been losing at the time (very late in the game) and allowed them to go ahead. This crew will not work together again until November 14th when they apparently will be allowed to victimize another school and affect the National Championship race.
Even though I’m a west coast guy, I have always thought that the Pac 10 has the absolute worst officials for football of any conference. That was reinforced this last week with the USC – Notre Dame game. In what was an apparent effort to demonstrate that this crew would not favor USC they went overboard and nearly gave the game to the Irish. A simply horrible “celebration” penalty was called on a sack when the USC lineman did nothing more that flex his biceps. He didn’t taunt, he did run or gesture to the fans, he didn’t even leave his place on the field. But that penalty turned a third down sack for a loss into a first down and kept a scoring drive alive. That wasn’t the only really questionable call (although on TV with the Notre Dame paid announcers you would have never know it). The game was never close and remove the bad penalties and the one tipped interception and this was another USC by 21 points.
Ohio State QB Terrell Pryor is playing badly, really badly. People are all over Buckeye coach Jim Tressel to bench him or something. But what can Tressel do? He has no other legitimate QB on the team (he only has a couple of JC transfers), Pryor for all his warts probably give OSU the best chance to win. Tressel has probably made two mistakes in this situation: (1) he has gotten away from his foundational offensive philosophy (which by the way, has won him a national championship and produced a Heisman winning QB), putting too much strain on his defense and weak special teams; (2) but his biggest problem is that he didn’t recruit a top 10 high school QB in the last two years to push Pryor in practice (and give him options if Pryor faltered). Now he’s really stuck and all the noise on this is going to make it harder for him to recruit QB’s, especially those who want to play in the NFL someday. Ohio State hasn’t become a bad program, but turning it around is going to take some time, probably two years. This is, at best, a slightly above average team who could easily lose three more games this season (they still play Iowa, Michigan, and Penn State), but they lost all of their senior leadership on offense from last season, their offensive line is rebuilding, their QB is an erratic sophomore with poor throwing mechanics, and their defense, while solid, is on the field way too much. While Pryor may blossom, right now he does not project to an starting NFL QB. Maybe a wildcat guy or probably better a wide receiver.
Posted by Narnia3 at October 21, 2009 7:03 PM | TrackBack