This week I hope to recover from a sub-par (why is sub-par bad when in golf it’s really a good thing?) 2-3 week (fortunately Alabama couldn’t cover the points). I’m now 28-15 for the season. There are some very good games this week, and I think another top 5 team will lose this week. BTW, the ranking numbers are now the BCS ranking which came out for the first time last Sunday.
Game #1: #5 USC at #10 Oregon. The Oregon Ducks are probably playing the best football of any of the current Top 10 teams. If it wasn’t for their embarrassing loss in the first game of the season against Boise State, they may very well have been ranked #1 by this time. USC has already had their annual loss and are unbeaten with Matt Barkley at QB. They are playing games closer than it seems they should, but they win. In the last couple of weeks the Trojans have shown a defensive weakness with intermediate passes in the middle of the field. They’ll need to fix that and handle the Ducks rushing, which is statistically better than the Trojans this year. Oregon is actually averaging more points than USC. The Trojans are currently favored by 3. This will certainly be the best game of the week and the most important. The Trojans win big games, take USC.
Game #2: #3 Texas at #14 Oklahoma State. This is a statistically very close game, Texas has slight advantages in passing and rushing, but total points are pretty close. Texas is another Top 5 team that has not looked it in the last month. Playing in Stillwater can be tough. Texas has won the last four meetings and the averages will balance out this week. The Longhorns are currently favored by 9. Texas hasn’t looked good in a few weeks playing weak teams. This is their last really big game before the Big 12 Championship (in which right now they’d face Kansas State!) I think their luck runs out this week. Take the Cowboys and the points as a “home dog.”
Game #3: Georgia at #1 Florida. These are two teams that emphatically do not like each other. Last year Florida Coach Urban Myer called two time outs with less than a minute to play, even though they were winning handily. Although Florida has dominated this series, take away terribly officiating by a now suspended officiating crew and the Bulldogs might be in the top 10. Tim Tebow, concussion or not, has regressed this year in his throwing and decision-making. Georgia is the better passing team and they have a good enough run defense to keep Florida honest. The Gators are currently favored by 19. Florida has not looked impressive for nearly a month, they probably win, but can’t cover nearly 3 touchdowns. Take the Dogs and the points.
Game #4: #12 Penn State at Northwestern. I’m sorry, I just can’t get too excited about any of the top three teams in the Big 10. Penn State just hasn’t played anyone yet (except their loss to Iowa) that’s a very good team. Northwestern has become a decent team and will probably go to a bowl game again this year. They have a very good passing game and the conference’s best QB and are playing at Evanston (does Penn State have some exemption against traveling? They only have 4 road games all season.). The Lions are currently favored by 15. The “Home Dog” rule applies here. The Wildcats are a good passing team, they may lose, but Penn State can’t cover this many points. Take Northwestern at home and the points.
Game #5: #21 West Virginia at South Florida. South Florida is having their annual melt down. They play great early and win some big games, move into the Top 25 and then proceed to lose to teams they really shouldn’t. This is simply a focus issue and the blame for that lays more at the feet of the coaching staff than the players. West Virginia has needed big rallies late to win their last two games. Weather will be a factor. Temps should be in the 80’s at game time with high humidity at Raymond James Stadium. I’ve heard very good pro players say they’d rather play in Green Bay in the winter than Florida in the fall. The Mountaineers are currently favored by 3. Take the Bulls at home and the points in the Friday night game.
Various Rantings:
My boss recently commented to me that I’m always down on his Ohio State Buckeyes. I replied that I wasn’t really, what I’m down on is the Big 10 Conference in general. I doubt right now that they are any better than about the 5th or 6th best conference in the nation and there is no sign that they are getting any better any time soon. I would say that even the non-BCS Mountain West Conference lined up top to bottom would probably win a series with the Big 10 right now). All in all, Ohio State has been the best team in the Big 10 for probably the last 10 years and the only Big 10 team to win more than one National Championship (2002, and their shared title in 1970), since 1970. Michigan did have a highly disputed shared title with Nebraska in 1997 and Penn State wasn’t in the Big 10 when they won their two titles in 1982 and 1986. But Ohio State is rebuilding and has QB and O-line issues (I heard Kirk Herbstreit, former OSU QB recently call the O-Line fat, slow and unathletic, he also said Pryor's mechanics and footwork were a mess); Penn State simply refuses to play a decent non-conference schedule and is in a state of arrested development until Joe Paterno retires; Iowa is undefeated, but doing it with smoke and mirrors (they are traditionally just an average team). Michigan, normally one of the three powers, is rebuilding with a new system but their new coach is in trouble with the NCAA and the alumni (and former coach Lloyd Carr who has a chance to become the new AD at Michigan, doesn’t like him either). The other teams are average (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan State) to simply terrible (Purdue, Indiana and especially the train wreck of Illinois). In the Conference's big Bowl Game, the Rose Bowl, the Big 10 team hasn’t won since 2000, and their representative has been plowed under the last three seasons in games that were never close.
So, am I just a Big 10 hater, not really. College football is much, much better, when the Big 10 Conference is good and they haven’t been for a while. They are not recruiting all that well. Top skill players from high school would rather be a backups for a while at Florida, Texas, USC and a few other schools than go to the Big 10. Tradition doesn’t recruit as well in college football as it used to and the top teams need in the Big 10 need to really look at their programs and see why their conference is falling behind.
One thing. I know the early BCS rankings are largely meaningless, but how in the world is even an undefeated Iowa team ranked ahead of USC (or even Cincinnati, or Boise State, or TCU). Iowa barely escaped Michigan State last week and only has a point differential of +71, the lowest by far of any Top 10 team.