Well, last week was pretty much a disaster, fortunately I don’t claim to be a prophet or I would be hiding from large boulders about now. 1-4 is by far my worst week of the year and now I’m 29-19 for the season. There are only a couple of quality games this week as #1 Florida (vs Vandy) and #2 Texas (vs UCF) pretty much have walkovers (after actually putting together nice games last week). But there are a couple of intriguing games and for a few teams absolute must win games.
Game #1: #16 Ohio State at #11 Penn State. The is a game between two teams that are in a bind. Ohio State is in the best shape. If they win out, they go to the Rose Bowl (oddly Jim Tressell has never coached in a Rose Bowl game). The downside is that winning out is three games in a row against Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan. Penn State, since they lost to Iowa, a lot of need help. They have to beat OSU and then hope for the Buckeyes to do them a favor and beat Iowa and hope Iowa can manage to also lose to Northwestern this week or Minnesota in their last game (with Iowa anything is possible, the Hawkeyes are probably the shakiest undefeated team in memory). A loss eliminates any BCS Bowl chance for OSU and probably Penn State (their weak schedule is catching up with them in the computers). OSU has lost their placekicker for the season, but he really wasn't a front line kicker and either of the two backups should be fine.The Nittany Lions are currently favored by 4. Ohio State is going to be a much better team next year than they are this year, but they will be the better team at Beaver Stadium this week. Take the Buckeyes and the points.
Game #2: #9 LSU at #3 Alabama. Alabama has played with a decided lack of style points in the last few weeks and probably have the suspended SEC officiating crew to thank for still being undefeated. They are coming off a bye-week and host LSU. The winner gets has the straight line to play in the SEC Championship game (at this point against Florida). This game will come down to LSU defense being able to stop the rush and if they can get a lead the advantage swings way over to the Tigers. The Tide is favored at home by 8. With a loss the Tigers are done in terms of a BCS game. I’m not convinced that the Tide has enough offense, in a very low scoring game take LSU and the points.
Game #3: #8 Oregon at Stanford. Stanford has a very good and upcoming team and they are very difficult to play at the Farm. Oregon is coming off perhaps the biggest win in the history of their program and they might have a letdown. On paper everything is Oregon, who right now are the best team in the country. The Ducks are currently favored by 9. Oregon should win this game, but it may be close, this will be a big test to see how they respond to success. Right now Oregon looks good enough to beat anyone. The Ducks win, but probably not with many style points.
Game #4: #12 USC at Arizona State. Two conference losses means the Trojans (absent some really strange happenings) are not going to the Rose Bowl. But, since they are USC (and are still at the magical #12 in the BCS standings), another BCS game, like the Fiesta Bowl, is a distinct possibility even with two losses. However, another loss and they will be through for the big bowl games. The Trojans pretty much got their helmets handed to them last week and all their weaknesses were exposed. The Trojans are currently favored by 11. All reports are that the Trojans had about the fiercest competitive practice in a long time. While this is a competitive ASU team, look for USC to ensure that they move up a notch or two in the rankings, take the Trojans.
Game #5: Navy at #22 Notre Dame. Notre Dame has managed to climb back into the Top 25 and now they are talking about a BCS game if they can win out (I think the chances they'll move up that far in the rankings is not likely and if they did it would be highly suspicious). It seems that whenever they start talking like this bad things happen. Historically, Notre Dame can put a “W” next to the Navy game sometime an hour or so after the schedule comes out, Navy has only one once (two years ago) in the last zillion meetings. The Irish have a huge advantage in passing, but their rush defense is very shaky and that’s what the Middies are all about. The annual meeting of the two last big independent teams (with their BCS exemptions). The Irish are currently favored by 11. Upset Alert of the Week! Take the Middies and the points.
Various Rantings:
The top two teams (Florida and Texas) last week finally began to play like top teams. But how Iowa, despite being undefeated, can possibly be ranked #4 (they’ve been behind, they were last week, in the second half of 6 of their games) is apparently beyond the belief of even their coach who remarked he was glad the computers can’t actually see the games. I think a very compelling case could be made that Iowa is not as good a team as Cincinnati, TCU, or Boise State (at this point it looks like either TCU or Boise State will get left out of a BCS game even if they are undefeated). Iowa, or whoever wins the Big 10 will get in the Rose Bowl, but it will be interesting to see if the Conference’s odd scheduling (which sees them ending their season about two weeks before everyone else) has a big effect their teams on the final BCS rankings.
Posted by Narnia3 at November 6, 2009 1:06 PM | TrackBack