Last week we had a nice comeback with the picks going 4-1 (and laughing all the way as Navy beat Notre Dame) so now for the year and now I’m 33-20. The games are getting interesting now and several of these games will largely decide who goes to the major bowl games. The top three teams (Florida vs South Carolina; Alabama vs Mississippi State; and Texas vs. Baylor) on paper should be three more wins. But all of these teams have shown a tendency to play down to their opposition, and don’t under-estimate the Old Ball Coach with a very good defensive team at home against his old school. The other team that could be upset (and perhaps the most likely) is Alabama traveling to Davis Wade Stadium. The chances of one of these iffy teams losing is pretty good and coupled with wins by Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State, would further complicate the BCS system and put their computers into over drive to keep “the right” teams in the championship game.
Game #1: #10 Iowa at #11 Ohio State. Probably the worst 8-0 team in history finally lost last week as Iowa was defeated by (a very under-rated by the way) Northwestern Wildcats. In the process the Hawkeyes lost their starting QB for the season. This was is a team that is so terribly over-rated it’s simply laughable (if they went to the Rose Bowl, they would open as probably 25 point underdogs to any of the Top Pac 10 teams). They have been behind in the second half in all but one game. Now they travel to the Horseshoe with a new QB who has had only one week (which in college is about 15 hours) of practice. OSU’s offense looked very good last week against Penn State. Offense has been the Buckeyes problem all year, not the fact they are not scoring a lot, but way too many “3 and outs” have been putting the defense on the field way too long in games and wearing them out at the end (i.e. the USC game). If they continue to cut down on the “three downs and a punt” this is a very good team. The Buckeyes are currently favored by 17. If Ohio State wins they go to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1996 (and the first time for Coach Tressel), both happen, take Ohio State and don’t worry about the points.
Game #2: #24 West Virginia at #5 Cincinnati. It doesn’t seem to matter who Cincinnati puts at QB, they just score a lot of points and keep winning. This is a very talented and well-coached team. The Bearcats are well ahead in every offensive category and West Virginia is simply over-rated (even at #24). Cincinnati is focused and by far the better team. The Bearcats are favored at home by 9. Cincinnati takes another step to getting into the BCS Championship game, take the Bearcats.
Game #3: #24 Stanford at #9 USC. On paper Stanford is better in every major offensive category, and this is a very good offensive team. The Cardinal’s main problem, their defense means no lead is safe. The Trojans are clearly rebuilding this year after send eight defensive starters to the NFL (all of whom are starting in the pros) and several offensive players, including a starting NFL QB. No college program can normally take those loses of personnel and expect to still be a top 10 team. Another issue this season for USC has been key injuries, especially on offense. But they are getting healthy again, probably for the first time since they played their best game of the season against Cal (a 30-3 final). The Trojans are currently favored by 11. The Trojans still have a little outside chance at the Rose Bowl, but must win out with some help to face Ohio State again, but they are more likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl. Take the Trojans in a high scoring game.
Game #4: #16 Utah at #4 TCU. These two teams traditionally play a low scoring defensive game and the Utes have won the last four meetings. This is the first time since the early 1960’s that TCU is being mentioned in National discussions. This is an excellent team on both sides of the ball and playing at home gives them even more of an advantage instead of the high elevation at Utah. This is a team that could be in the National Championship game (and we are still hoping for a TCU vs. Cincinnati game in the Rose Bowl). The Horned Frogs are currently favored by 20. While 20 points might be a little much to cover, TCU wins this game and makes a statement that the Mountain West, with four consistently good to great teams, belongs in the BCS system. Take the Horned Frogs.
Game #5: #17 Arizona at California. At one point this year Cal was being talked about as a National Champion and their star running back as a Heisman winner. Well, both possibilities are gone, especially with their running back suffering a serious concussion last week. Quietly Arizona has climbed up in the rankings and are playing well. However, this is a team that traditionally has not traveled well. Coach Tedford at Cal will bring his team back from an embarrassing loss last week. The Wildcats are currently favored by only 3. I think the Golden Bears circle the wagons and come away with a win, take Cal and the points.
Various Rantings:
Two historically great programs and their coaches (Charles Weiss at Notre Dame and Rich Rodriguez at Michigan) are in serious trouble. Notre Dame’s record of 6-3 doesn’t look terrible (at least not as bad as the Wolverines 5-5, but 1-5 in conference) but when you look closer they are really not far from being 2-7. They end their season with #13 Pittsburgh this week, then a very tough-minded (something decidedly lacking in the Irish) UConn Husky team and then end on a long trip to the Farm at Stanford to play a very good #25 Cardinal. The Irish could easily end with two or three more loses. If they end with two more loses, Weiss will have a worse overall record for his tenure than the two previous coaches (Bob Davie and Ty Willingham) who were both fired. Despite the reported $14 million buyout required, if Weiss is 7-5 at the end of the season and playing in the Whatchamacallit Bowl against one of the Sisters of Mercy schools, the pressure will be too great on the administration and Weiss will be unemployed (perhaps even before their bowl game).
The situation with Rodriguez is a little more complex. He inherited a team with little to no talent and perhaps no talent to operate his new offensive scheme. By all rights he should get at least four year to turn this program around. But, if he loses to #20 Wisconsin and #11 Ohio State, which would put Michigan in the basement of the Big 10; that added with the fact that the alumni doesn’t like him, he has ethical baggage, and he’s got Michigan into at least a minor NCAA investigation, all of it could be too much. While he may survive to come back next year (but unless he beats Ohio State, I don’t think so), a third season with a losing record and no noticeable improvement, will be his last; and another embarrassing loss to a low-flying team, and he probably would be fired mid-season.