Last week we were once again 4-1 so now for the year and now I’m 37-21. The only game we missed was another USC loss. I’m obviously a big USC fan and am disappointed by the season, but when you lose roughly 11 starters, the two main coordinators and have a QB leave for the NFL, that’s hard for any program to absorb. Expectations were probably too high for the Trojans this year, and they were killed by some key (and often lingering) injuries. But they had some very good wins and they also have once again recruited very well. The season is winding down and the next couple of weeks should be little more than formalities, which the exception of a couple of conference championship games. The top three teams are taking the week off (in a manner of speaking) as #1 Florida plays Florida International (The Gators are favored by 45 points); #2 Alabama plays Chattanooga (the Tide is a prohibitive favorite, this means in terms of wagering, Florida International has a better chance of winning than Chattanooga does), and #3 Texas does play a conference game against the train-wreck program of Kansas (The Longhorns are only favored by 28). Good games are a little scarce, but here goes.
Game #1: #10 Ohio State at Michigan. Two teams going in exact opposite directions will help bring the Big 10 season to a close. Ohio State, at one point had fans asking for Coach Tressel’s head and about the same time Michigan looked like the best team in the Big 10. Things turned around quickly. Tressel is off to his first Rose Bowl and Rich Rodriguez will like soon be out of a job. His only realistic hope of not being fired is to pull off a big upset at the Big House. Losing would normally be bad enough, but everyone recognized that the Wolverine cupboard was pretty bare when he arrived. But now NCAA investigators are uncovering a little more (and it’s not like Rodriguez has been scandal free in the past) and the combination of losing and the program being under investigation is probably more than the Michigan AD and President will allow. Between the sidelines, these teams are a statistical dead heat. OSU’s offense is still not sustaining drives long enough to keep the defense fresh and Pryor is still a work in progress with amazingly bad mechanics. The Buckeyes are currently favored by 12. There is a lot on the line here, mainly for Michigan. Ohio State is going to the Rose Bowl but Michigan has to win just to be bowl eligible. This is still one of the biggest rivalry games in college football. The Buckeyes plow the Wolverines under in Rich Rodriguez’s last game at Michigan.
Game #2: #25 Cal at #17 Stanford. The annual rivalry game of the Bay area sees perhaps the hottest and most surprising team ranked ahead of a team that earlier in the year was talked about as a National Champion. The only game between this week between two Top 25 teams. Both are coming off wins (Stanford’s was the biggest against USC). Stanford can still get to the Rose Bowl if Oregon (along with Oregon State and Arizona) lose in the next couple of weeks. But both of these teams will be going to Bowl Games. Stanford has a huge advantage in rushing and with Cal’s main offensive weapon, Javhid Best is still recovering from a concussion. The Cardinal are favored at home by 8. Stanford is hot and at home, take the Cardinal.
Game #3: Kansas State at Nebraska. At this point it looks like the winner of the Big 12 North will be unranked. The Big 12 Conference overall has been a big disappointment this year and the North even more so. This is a tough game (I have friends who are fans of each school and my daughter has been accepted to attend K-State). This is a game where is each team plays their very best game, you would go with Nebraska, mainly because of their defense. But the problem is that neither team has consistently played their best for any long stretch. The stats are relatively even with NU having a slight advantage in passing and K-State having an advantage in rushing. If Nebraska wins they go to the Big 12 Championship game (unless somehow they lose next week to Colorado). The Huskers probably have the best chance of beating Texas of any team in the North. The Huskers are currently favored by 17. I agree, take the Huskers at home.
Game #4: UConn at Notre Dame. On the schedule this probably looked like an easy W for the Irish back in the summer. Well, the season hasn’t gone to well for Notre Dame and the Weiss era is just about over. In reality this is a team that is much worse than their record. They could easily have lost three or four of their other games. No one will confirm that Weiss will be back next year (a sure sign that he won’t). Notre Dame has a huge advantage in passing, but UConn is the superior rushing team (does this remind anyone of Navy?). Alumni will be lining up to contribute to the buyout for Weiss’ contract. He hasn’t been a good college coach, he hasn’t recruited well and he hasn’t won big games and now isn’t winning against inferior teams. The Irish are currently favored by only 8 at home (against a team that is only 4-5!). This is a Notre Dame team in complete disarray, take the Huskies and the points.
Game #5: #11 Oregon at Arizona. A couple of weeks ago Oregon was the hottest team in college football, until they went to Stanford and lost. However, the Pac 10 Championship is a fairly simple equation, the Ducks beat Arizona and they can start preparing for the Rose Bowl. But Arizona is a very good team that will also go to a bowl game (they still must play Arizona State and USC though) and if they win out, they go to the Rose Bowl. This is another passing (Arizona) vs rushing (Oregon) team. The Ducks are currently favored by 7. In the end I think the Ducks just have too much firepower for the Wildcats and they go to Pasadena.
Various Rantings:
I have officially committed to obtaining and wearing an Ohio State tie to work should they manage to beat whoever they play in the Rose Bowl. I don’t think they can beat any of the top Pac 10 teams and one reason has nothing to do with their team or coaching. The fault lies with the Conference. The Big 10 oddly finishes their season this week, a full two weeks (and in some cases three) before any of their other major conferences. This means that at Rose Bowl time the Buckeyes have nearly a month more non-game prep time than any of their opponents. That may not sound like much, but that is really problematic in keeping a team sharp, focused, and more importantly, in game shape. The Big 10 really needs to look at their antiquated scheduling and probably needs to add another team and add a Conference championship game (BTW almost all of the coaches want these changes). Outside of the champion the idle teams of the Big 10 can easily drop in the rankings after their season is over and other teams impress the pollsters and computers. The coaches, on the other hand, need to really stiffen up their non-conference games if they want to move up in the conference rankings.
On the other coast, the Pac 10 probably needs to do the same thing. Right now they are the only conference where each team plays every team within the conference. That’s a good scheme, but they probably should go to a 12 team conference and add a championship game as well. There are some good teams out there, Boise State, Utah, BYU, even perhaps Nevada. The other thing the Pac 10 needs is their own TV network or major contract (they’re the only conference that ESPN doesn’t have a deal with).
Posted by Narnia3 at November 25, 2009 4:39 PM | TrackBack