The important part of any game is the end, and last week I was again 4-1 (12-3 in the last three weeks) so now for the year and now I’m 41-22. Only Stanford let me down (although they will drive the final nail in the tenure of Charlie Weiss this week). The next two weeks are largely the classic rivalry games, a couple are better than some and I think there is big upset in the mix, with three classic trap games on tap. The Big 10 season is over now (see last weeks’ ranting on how the Big 10 needs to move into the 21st Century) and with two more weeks and conference championship games there are a couple of those teams that could drop in the rankings. One reader of these little notes reminded me that it wasn’t all that long ago that the Big 10 Conference would not allow any bowl appearances for teams except the conference winner in the Rose Bowl.
In a couple of the rivalry games two of the top teams should win. #3 Texas plays at Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night and are favored by 21. This is only a very average A&M team not playing against strong competition. #1 Florida hosts the woeful Florida State Seminoles on Saturday and are currently favored by 25. But these are rivalry games and those are a lot of points, especially the second game. What about #2 Alabama? Read on.
Game #1: #21 Utah at #19 BYU. This is the only game between two Top 25 teams (BTW the non-BCS Mountain West Conference has three teams in the Top 25). This is another rush (Utah) vs pass (BYU) game. Max Hall the senior QB for the Cougars is now their all time winning QB (quite a feat considering whose played that position in Provo) and they have a very good running back. BYU was embarrassed last year by the Utes and the seniors want to go out on a winning note, especially at home. The Cougars are currently favored by 8. This is always a very good game, but stick with the Cougars at home.
Game #2: #2 Alabama at Auburn. The annual Iron Bowl is a really bitter rivalry game. These are two programs who really don’t like each other and traditionally the underdog has relished in spoiling the favored teams national stature. This year is no exception. The Tide dispatched Chattanooga last week in what was little more than a glorified scrimmage, but this is an Auburn team that is equal to Alabama in rushing and a much better passing team. The Tide’s offense has failed to impress most of this season and at 7-3 the Tigers probably will play in a good bowl game. Alabama plays in the SEC Championship game no matter what against Florida, but if they get behind they don’t have the offense to catch up without “official” assistance. The Tide are favored at home by 10. Upset Alert, Big Time Trap Game! Take the home dog Tigers and the points.
Game #3: Georgia at #7 Georgia Tech. This is one of the better rivalry games over the years, the “clean, old-fashioned hate” game. This is the classic rush (Georgia Tech) vs. pass (Georgia) game, and Georgia holds a near 9 point per game scoring average advantage. If the Bulldogs get a lead and forces Tech to throw, the Yellow Jackets could be in trouble (their only loss was to a passing Miami team and they nearly lost to another pass first team in Wake Forest). Tech is going to the ACC championship game regardless of the outcome and to a BCS game if they can beat Clemson. The Bulldogs have underachieved this year and tend to play down to their competition, which really caught up with them last week against a really weak Kentucky team (a horribly embarrassing loss). There is no question that Coach Reicht is on the hot seat and a rivalry win would give him an easier off-season and help recruiting. The Yellow Jackets are currently favored by 8, a surprisingly low number. This is a classic trap game, take the Bulldogs and the points with the Wreck looking too far ahead and Georgia playing to save their coach’s job.
Game #4: UCLA at #20 USC. The Trojans have played horrible, uncharacteristically bad defense the last three game giving up more points than they did all last season (although, again, pretty much all of last year’s defensive team are starting in the NFL now). The Bruins are going in the right direction and have won some games they really were not expected to win and have played tough. They remain really banged up and they are a very young team. On paper all the stats belong to USC. Matt Barkley, the freshman QB has been pretty average or worse the last three weeks. But, he’s also won the previous two big rivalry games (Ohio State and Notre Dame). The Trojans had a bye week to get healthy and ready, and Pete Carroll is traditionally undefeatable after a bye week. The Bruins are bowl eligible, but not really assured of a bowl game and this is their last game of the season. The Trojans have two game and need to win both. The Trojans are currently favored by 13. Remarkably USC is still viewed as a BCS at large invitee (because they travel really well and will bring in lots of fans, and, of course, the BCS is about money). But the Trojans have to win out. They will and the Bruins will have to wait another year.
Game #5: #9 Pittsburgh at West Virginia. The “Back Yard Brawl” traditionally has been all West Virginia until 2 years ago, when a terrible Pitt team beat a highly ranked West Virginia team at Morgantown. The Mountaineers have not been a good team this year and probably should have lost two other games. Pitt is playing very well. The teams are statistically even, except Pitt has an advantage in points scored, mainly because West Virginia kicks too many field goals. The Mountaineers are currently marginal favorites at home (this means it’s a toss up). This is another trap game, the Panthers should win, but I think they’re looking ahead to next week with Cincinnati, which will be too bad. Take West Virginia.
Various Rantings:
Anyone who knows me knows that I think the BCS system is one part idiocy and two parts racketeering that was created solely to make certain that the Holiday Bowl never decides that National Championship again and that teams like BYU aren’t ever allowed to spoil the money flow to the “traditional powers.” The calls for massive reform or elimination of the BCS system have even gotten close to Congressional hearings. Things must be heating up, because the BCS just started a new website: www.playoffproblem.com a website devoted to debunking each and every College football playoff scheme that is devised (ignoring the fact that Div 2, 3 and NAIA have had very good playoff systems for football for decades). The BCS has now entered into the “Yeah our system is bad, but it’s a lot better than any of your ideas” brand of defense. This is really a sign of desperation and hopefully of the BCS’ soon demise.
A very wealthy alum and donor to Michigan said he thought Coach Rodriguez “probably would be back” next season and since he’s given over $100 million to the school over the years that’s probably a good sign he’ll be back, although the school president would only commit to the statement, “he’s the head football coach.” But the same donor also said, “he better win next year.” Rodriguez will be in his third year and his recruits to the program are now pretty much the bulk of his players. So it looks like he’ll get one more year to turn things around, but that’s likely all. And, if the NCAA investigation goes south much more he could still be gone. The logs that are supposed to be kept recording players work out and practice times were non-existent and even if nothing else comes out the program is probably going to get more than a slap on the wrist.
Posted by Narnia3 at November 26, 2009 6:37 PM | TrackBack