Thanks to Alabama failing to cover I was 5-0 last week and now 17-3 in the last four weeks, and for the year and now I’m 46-22. This is perhaps the toughest week of the year after week #1 for picks. Conference Championship Week and all the BCS and various Bowl announcements will be on Sunday night. Last week 8 of the ten ranked favorites lost in their rivalry games and a couple of them lost badly and a couple that won, only barely won.
Game #1: SEC Conference Final: #1 Florida vs #2 Alabama. I’m afraid it’s hard to get excited about either of these teams. Alabama has a great defense but a terrible offense while Florida has a sufficient offense and average defense. I think both teams could easily be beaten by TCU, Boise State, or Cincinnati, but the aura of the SEC (and the needs of the BCS) has kept them ranked at #1 and #2. Statistically these teams are pretty even, the Gators averaging only five more points per game. Tim Tebow is Florida’s leading passer (obviously) and also the leading rusher and has accounted for about 90% of the scoring. Should he be injured or is ineffective Alabama has a chance. But Alabama’s leading rusher, Brian Ingram was injured last week and occasionally goes MIA. The Gators are currently favored by 6. Florida can play badly at times and is not a dominate team but the Tide are really terrible on offense and Florida will be able to score enough to win, but I don’t see this as a very exciting game.
Game #2: The Civil War: #16 Oregon State at #7 Oregon. The Pac 10 will end the year as probably the best conference overall and at one time or another a couple of teams were viewed at national champion contenders. This is by all accounts the biggest game ever in the state of Oregon. The winner goes to the Rose Bowl. The loser either goes to the Holiday Bowl (Oregon since they have the tie-breaker with USC) or some other bowl (Oregon State, since they lost to USC). These are two very good programs with good coaches and skill players. The Beavers are almost there, the Ducks are here. This is a passing (Oregon State) vs rushing (Oregon) team but the rushing team can pass as well. Factor in Autzen Stadium and that is simply too much for the Beavers this time around. The Ducks are favored at home by 10. The Beavers are a very good team , but Oregon wins this home game and gets Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.
Game #3: ACC Championship Game: #10 Georgia Tech vs Clemson. Neither team in this games picked up any momentum last week, each losing to rivals from the SEC and both being beaten rather convincingly. In the Clemson Tigers Tech faces the same thing that killed them last week, a very good passing team that can score quickly. Tech’s pass defense was exposed and once behind, their grinding rushing game couldn’t make up the difference. This is once again the classic passing (Clemson) vs rushing (Georgia Tech) game and this season Tech has been exposed by passing offenses. The Tigers are currently favored by 1 at a truly neutral site, Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay. I like passing teams over rushing teams in big games, Take Clemson in what will be viewed as an upset.
Game #4: Big Twelve Championship Game: #3 Texas vs #22 Nebraska. This is a game where if Nebraska plays their very best game and Texas doesn’t the Huskers could win. This is essentially a home game for the Longhorns, but Nebraska travels well and I doubt anyone expected them to be in this game at the beginning of the season. On paper this is a Texas game all the way, the only thing the Huskers really have to hang their hat on is defense, where, they have a slightly better average deferential than Texas. Nebraska also has four All Big 12 Defensive starters and a potential Heisman candidate in Suh. Like Florida, is Colt McCoy were injured or ineffective, Texas doesn’t have much back up and he accounts for a huge percentage of their offense. The Longhorns are currently favored by 14. This will be a closer game than anyone thinks. Texas will probably win, but they won’t cover, take the Huskers and the points.
Game #5: Essentially The Big East Championship Game #5 Cincinnati at #15 Pittsburgh. The winner of this game takes the Big East Championship and the automatic BCS bid. Pittsburgh was beaten soundly in a rivalry game against a team they should have beaten. In Cincinnati they face a team that they might have a chance to beat if they played their very best game and Cincinnati doesn’t. Both Bearcats QB’s are better than the #1 Pitt QB. They average over 100 yards per game more than Pitt in passing and can still rush the ball. The Bearcat defense is well coached also. The Panthers are currently favored by 2 at home. The people who have made these odds will likely be unemployed on Sunday. Pittsburgh has been over-rated all year along with their coach. Take Cincinnati to win big and perhaps make a jump to #2.
Bonus #1: Arizona at #18 USC. After an interesting ending to the UCLA game (I think Rick Neuheisal knew exactly how Pete Carroll would react to the time out and got what he wanted, something to building on emotionally for next year when he will have a much better team to play the Trojans) USC ends the regular season with a home game. Statistically, Arizona has the slightly better offensive numbers, but they have a suspect defense at times. Trojan QB Matt Barkley has struggled at times, but in the end he did win the three big rivalry games (Ohio State, Notre Dame, and UCLA). The Trojans are favored at home by 8. Take the Trojans to close out the regular season and combined with a win by Oregon play in the Holiday Bowl against Nebraska.
Bonus #2: #23 West Virginia at Rutgers. West Virginia entered the year as a Top 10 team and could end the year out of the Top 25. They were probably over-rated from the beginning and in reality were fortunate not to have lost a couple of other games. Despite pulling out a big rivalry win last week (against another over-rated team) the Mountaineers have been terribly inconsistent. Rutgers has been somewhat of a disappointment, but they do play defense. The Mountaineers are currently favored at home by 1. This is not as good a West Virginia team as people thought, take the Red Raiders at home.
Various Rantings:
The inevitable happened with the firing of Charlie Weiss at Notre Dame. The Irish can still be a front line program. They can recruit anywhere, they have the resources and history to be back as a Top 5 team. The idea that their academic standards and rural location (in cold weather) is a turn off to recruiting is simple-minded nonsense. The right coach with the right philosophy towards the college and the program is all that is needed. Weiss was just the wrong fit. He’s a pro assistant coach not a college head coach. Look for them to find a defensive-minded, high motivator head coach who will bring in a top flight offensive coordinator (something along the line of a Pete Carroll at USC or former Irish coach Lou Holtz). BTW Norm Chow’s salary supplement from his pro stop ends this year. Can UCLA afford $1 million for a coordinator or does he move on?
Right now the BCS championship game looks set as the SEC Championship games serves as a semi-final. There are a few scenarios that mess things up though:
The other confusing scenario would be if Alabama won but in a tediously boring 10-7 game or something like that, and Texas won big. Texas might move to #1 and TCU or Cincinnanti could move to #2, unlikely but possible.