I ended the regular season with a record of 50-25, so I’ll do ten bowl games, all the BCS games and a few others.
Here are the Bowl Predictions. Given what they had the BCS largely is OK this year with one glaring exception. They took the coward approach and put the two party crashers (TCU and Boise State) together in the Fiesta Bowl. This largely proves nothing except that the major BCS teams didn’t want to lose again to non-BCS teams. In theory there is currently a formula in place (and the stats now are in the mix) to add conferences to the BCS automatic system in 2012. The Mountain West is 3-0 in their bowl games so far and really should be in the system (especially if the Big East and ACC are allowed to remain).
Game #1: The Capital One Bowl: #12 Penn State vs. #13 LSU: I remain mystified by how Penn State is ranked where they are. They played perhaps the weakest schedule of any BCS Conference team, the only good team they beat was Northwestern and they lost to both Iowa and Ohio State (their non-conference schedule was simply laughable). A couple of intangibles will come into play in this game against Penn State. First of all, like all the other Big 10 teams they’ve been away from game conditions 2-3 weeks longer than all the other bowl teams. The other thing with Penn State is that they are not a traveling team (somehow they only played four road games all season) and this will be the longest trip they’ve taken all year. On paper Penn State has all the advantage, but again, they didn’t play anyone, so the stats are largely meaningless. While LSU clearly is not as strong as past teams they play against a much strong schedule and are a more proven team. Penn State is currently favored by 2 points. For all the reasons I noted take LSU and the meager two points.
Game #2: The Outback Bowl: Northwestern vs. Auburn: OK, I like underdogs and I’ve always had a soft spot in my heart for Northwestern (since I did some studying there in a former life). This is a classic passing (Northwestern) vs. rushing (Auburn) game. In unbalanced attacks I always prefer a passing over a rushing team. I also have my doubts that Auburn will take this game or team as seriously as they should. I’ve already noted all the disadvantages that the Big 10 team have in bowl games, and I really doubt that they will win any of their game, except this one. Auburn is currently favored by 7. Upset Alert: Despite all the disadvantages that the Wildcats have, take Northwestern to win.
Game #3: The Liberty Bowl: East Carolina vs. Arkansas: On paper this game is all Arkansas, they have the advantage in every statistical category and of course they play in the mythically superior SEC. The coaches are interesting, Skip Holtz, the son of Hall of Fame coach Lou Holtz, is rumored to be the next coach at every major program with an opening and East Carolina certainly realizes that Conference USA is not going to be able to keep a young top flight, successful coach for very long. While Holtz may be back next year, since all the front line jobs are now spoken for, he’s on his way to bigger and better things, but he doesn’t go looking for them. Bobby Petrino of Arkansas on the other hand is always looking for his next job (even when he’s under contract) and I doubt that working at a mid-level SEC position is what he wants or will be doing much longer. He’s kind of what is wrong with some college coaches in my opinion. I think Holtz will have a very good game plan in place and overcome the talent differential. The Razorbacks are currently favored by 8 points. This is an upset alert, take the Pirates and the points to propel Skip Holtz further by beating his father’s old team.
Game #4: The Holiday Bowl: #22 Nebraska vs. #20 Arizona: The Cornhuskers are the little girl with the curl; when they are good they are very, very good and when they are bad they are really, really bad. Nebraska has probably the consensus #1 pick for the NFL draft on defense and a very good defense overall, and they were just one second away from throwing the whole BCS system into chaos and playing in a BCS game. Arizona is a passing team, but also a team that has offensive line issues, they simply can’t rush at all. Nebraska is only giving up 11 points per game, but they only average 24 points per game and lately it’s been worse than that. If the Wildcats can somehow score 17 or so points the Huskers simply don’t have the offense to match. Nebraska is currently favored by 1 point. I think in the end the Husker defense will simply be too much for Arizona, take Nebraska.
Game #5: The Eaglebank Bowl: Temple vs. UCLA: I had to pick a game that I was at least marginally interested in and I do like the direction that UCLA is going. OK, the Bruins were barely bowl eligible, are making their first east coast trip in a decade (for any game), and are on a really bad run of bowl games (lost 8 of their last 11 and 3 straight). Temple was very good this season, but they are in the MAC and UCLA has a significant edge in talent. Coach Golden has done a lot in just a year at Temple and while he may be back next year, this will be an audition game for him to move up into a larger conference. The weather and the field could be a factor tomorrow. The temps should be in the 20’s and although there won’t be any snow, the Redskins played last night and the field is going to be pretty torn up. The warm-weather Bruins won’t be used to either. This will also be practically a home game for the Temple Owls. UCLA is currently favored by 4 points. This might be a close game for a while, but the Bruins just will have too much for the small conference Owls to handle.
Game #6: The Sugar Bowl: #3 Cincinnati vs. #5 Florida: You can see my “Rantings” below on Urban Myer, but while both teams have had coaching turmoil, at least Cincinnati knew about it and handled it to conclusion a few weeks ago. Urban Myer has made a classic error in leadership in how he’s handled his situation and it will impact his team, negatively. In the SEC Championship game Alabama exposed what we really knew about Florida, they were largely over-rated; a good, but not great (and in the larger scheme of things not even a “very good”) team. The Gators also played flat in that game, so not playing in the Championship Game (to which they were essentially anointed at the beginning of the season) will certainly be a letdown. The Bearcats have the advantage in passing, and honestly the spread offense of Florida plays to the advantage of the fast but slightly undersized defense of Cincinnati. The Gators big advantage is rushing and grinding the ball and they are deeper at on both lines. The Gators are currently favored by 14 points. Florida hasn’t covered the spread against any decent team this season and won’t in the Sugar Bowl. Take the Bearcats and the points and don’t be surprised if Cincinnati wins this one.
Game #7: The Rose Bowl: #7 Ohio State vs. #6 Oregon: Right now the weather looks to be normal Rose Bowl weather: Sunny, a little wind, temps in the middle 60’s, a great field that no one has played on in weeks, perfect green grass that will get a little rain on Wednesday, in other words a perfect setting. Amazingly this is the first time Coach Tressell will have a team in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State comes into the game a little short-handed with a couple of starters and some reserves left home for disciplinary reasons (good for Tressell, some coaches in some programs wouldn’t do that). OSU also really needs this win for themselves (they’ve lost too many big games recently) and for their conference (although I like Northwestern, the Big 10 could easily lose all their bowl games this season). Today the OSU QB announced that he’s playing with a slightly torn PCL in his knee and is still having some trouble “making all the cuts” (I’m sure all the people wearing suits and sunglasses in Las Vegas and Atlantic City were really happy to hear that a couple of days before the game). The Ducks have a big athletic QB who can run and pass and they have two front line running backs. Their coach is one of the most innovative offense minds in college today and while not as big on defense of OSU, they are faster and more athletic. I actually have something riding on this game. I obligated myself to purchase and wear an Ohio State tie to work if somehow they win this game (and its unilateral, I am not requiring reciprocity on the part of the Dean of the Seminary). Oregon is currently favored by 4 (but 62% of the computer simulations show them winning). Sorry, Big 10 fans, the Ducks will plow the Buckeyes under in another Rose Bowl rout, this game may be over by halftime and I won’t be looking for a tie.
Game #8: The Fiesta Bowl: #6 Boise State at #4 TCU: This will probably be the best of the bowl games in terms of good football of the season. These teams played last year in the nondescript Poinsettia Bowl with TCU pulling out a close game. Both teams deserve better (see above and below) at the hands of the BCS and this game does nothing except give each school a big check and keeps them out of the way (I was amused by all the talk of the Fiesta Bowl’s “maverick tendencies” in picking teams as though this was somehow a huge coup for them). Either team could have played for and won the national championship against any of the other BCS teams. Boise State comes in with the best offense in the nation and TCU has a really strong defense. While this is a Passing (Boise State) vs. Rushing (TCU) game, TCU can also pass when it has to and Boise State can rush. TCU has the better defense, but Boise State has shown it can stop a very good rushing team (see Oregon) when they have to. TCU is currently favored by 8 points. Despite my normal tendencies I think the Horned Frogs have too much defense. Take TCU in what will be a very good and probably close game.
Game #9: The Orange Bowl: #10 Iowa vs. #9 Georgia Tech: This should be called the BCS’ version of the “Hiding in the Closet Bowl.” The Orange Bowl and BCS people apparently didn’t want another of their teams shellacked by a non-BCS team so they contrived what will in all probability be the worst game of the bowl season. The main problem with this bowl is that both teams are terribly over-ranked. Georgia Tech is probably an OK #12 or so, but Iowa, despite their record, is not even a Top 20 team. Iowa, like the other Big 10 teams has been off the field for 3 weeks longer than Tech (and that makes a difference), although the time may have helped their QB heal from ankle surgery from an injury suffered in their last game. But playing for the first time after surgery you only had about five weeks ago in a Bowl game against a front line opponent isn’t usually a recipe for success. Tech’s problem is that occasionally they forget to show up for the game and lose to inferior teams. I don’t see Coach Johnson allowing that to happen this time. Tech is currently favored by 4 which seems terribly misguided. Take the Wreck in a rout over an Iowa team that shouldn’t be in this game.
Game #10: The BCS Championship Game #2 Texas vs. #1 Alabama: I will admit that I was entirely surprised by the offense of Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Up to that point they had shown nothing all season that would have indicated that they had that kind of imagination on offense or the ability to even attempt to be that imaginative. Now, it’s possibly that they merely exploited what we believe was a terribly over-rated Florida team, but the Tide showed that they have skill on offense. This is another Passing (Texas) vs. Rushing (Alabama) game, and I always like passing over rushing in big games. Ingram won the Heisman and is a great player, but sometimes Heisman winners don’t do well in bowl games (winning the Heisman entails a lot of distractions). But Texas had a Heisman finalist at QB and a receiver who should have been (Shipley). The Tide is currently favored by 4, largely on the strength of their defense. I don’t see it, take the Longhorns and the points to win this game.
Various Rantings:
If the Big Ten (11) is really serious about expanding the conference and adding a championship game (which NCAA rules state can only be done if your conference has 12 teams), then adding Rutgers is by far the best option and really should happen by the 2011 season. The Pac 10, which is traditionally full of really good teams but also traditionally run by out of date, backwards, and largely incompetent thinking, is in danger of really falling behind the curve if they don’t move forward as well. They need to expand to 12 teams, add a championship game, add their own network and maybe even (this is really out of the box thinking) actually sign a television agreement with someone like ESPN. Since the Mountain West will almost certainly become a BCS Conference (and the WAC won’t) the best thing the Pac 10 could do is get both Boise State and Nevada from the WAC and become the Pac 12. North Section (the Oregon and Washington schools with Boise State and Nevada) Southern Section (the Arizona schools, USC, UCLA, Cal and Stanford). Boise State would hold its own quite well and Nevada would be better than nearly half of the teams (and then being in a BCS conference would enhance their recruiting). Actually the teams in this expansion scenario would be better than when the Pac 8 added the Arizona schools and became the Pac 10. At the time both Arizona schools were just terrible in football.
The situation at Florida with their coach, in terms of football, can’t be a good thing for the program. They are getting ready to play in a bowl game and they are looking at not really being a good team next year (losing 25 seniors and maybe a couple of juniors to the draft). This certainly won’t help their recruiting until there is some idea of exactly what’s going to happen going forward.
One can’t help but feel sorry for Urban Meyer, who by all accounts is a good coach, a good guy, and is exceptionally bright. But, like all people who get to the level that he has attained, he’s also really, really driven. He has known health issues. He has a cyst on his brain that causes migraines (I know migraines and they are horrible) and his stress level is such that he, depending on the accuracy of the reports, either has a heart valve issue or some other heart problem (reports also are that he’s been to the ER several times in the last two months for chest pains). He announced that he was retiring because of the health problems and then the next day changed his mind and said he’s only taking a “indefinite leave.” Whatever caused him to change his mind it probably has something to do with the same problems that have led to developing way too much stress in the first place, he appears to be a driven guy. He’s only 45, pretty young in terms of college coaches, and hopefully he can get healthy, whatever the issues really are; but my observations of people is that they generally don’t change in terms of overall lifestyle and leadership habits. Being desirous of doing your best, of being the best, being focused, etc., are all largely good things. Being driven is not a good thing.