As the world waits for the "offical" death of the Palestinian leader Yassar Arafat, one must begin to wonder what the Middle East will be like without him and what the future for the so-called Palestinian "Cause" will be. There are of course, some things worth remembering about both the Palestinians and Arafat in particular.
First of all, people should remember that the Arab nations privately despise the Palestinians, who are considered little better than the Gypsies were in Europe. If anyone has any illusions about the Palestinian status among the Arab nations, just remember the treatment they were subject to under the late King Hussain of Jordan, who in the late 1950's and early 1960's was engaged in his own little genocide. I would think that it would have caught someone's attention that in all of the Middle East "Peace Talks" whenever the discussion of a return to the 1967 borders (when the Palestinian areas were part of the nation of Jordan), the Jordanian monarchy and government become strangely silent. Jordan wants no part of a return of the Palestinians to their nation, nor does any other Arab nation.
After the West Bank area was captured by Israel, the Arab nations found a new strategy. Support the Palestinians as their long-suffering brothers in a struggle against Israel. The Arabs understand that a direct military confrontation with Israel generally results in their being defeated and also has the potential of bringing the military power of the United States to Israel's defense against them. So they have used the Palestinians as surrogates. The old Arab proverb, "The enemy of my enemy is my friend." The Arab response to suicide bombers is simple: killing Israelis is good and a Palestinian blowing himself up is an added benefit.
This may seem a little hard-hearted, but just look at what the Arab nations, expecially the exceptionally wealthy ones, have actually contributed to the Palestianians. On the whole, virtually nothing when compared to the money that Europe has sent to Arafat's gang. Has Saudi Arabia or the UAE or Kuwait or the others with money to spare, built a single hospital, university, or other useful public entity in the Palestinian territory? Have they invested in business ventures there? Of course the answer is no. It should also be remembered that a large number of Palestinians are not Muslims, they are Christians (generally of the Orthodox or Catholic persuasion).
Arafat himself is simply viewed as a "useful idiot." He is kept in power to help present an illusion of a Palestinian state or country and is a rallying point for the European nations to send money to. He has no power to make the lives of the Palestinian people better and he has no power to make a peace deal with Israel. This was made finally crystal clear when President Clinton and then Israeli Prime Minister Barak presented a plan that gave the Palestinians essentially 97% of the land they wanted and Arafat walked away from it. He at least knew that if he signed onto that deal, or any deal with Israel, he would be dead within a day or so. He and the Palestinians only exist to continue to bleed Israel divert resources so that Israel cannot reach its economic potential.
President Bush and Secretary Powell realized, finally, that attempting to deal with Arafat was a useless endeavor and gave Israel a free hand to marginalize him (short of actually killing him). Now that Arafat is about to pass from the scene what will the future bring? It is difficult to say. But there are too many factions and too many would-be leaders for it to be a peaceful transition. Even at this late date, the Palestinian government has not given control of the security forces from the reportedly comatose Arafat to the Palestinian Prime Minister. An open civil war in the Palestinian territories is the most likely scenario. This, of course, makes Prime Minister Sharon's plan to unilaterally withdraw Jewish settlers from Gaza a very good move. Jewish casualities in a Palestinian civil war would almost certainly force the Israeli government to intervene.
If open rioting and conflict should be the result of Arafat's death, look and see who is called upon to take action to stop it. Naturally it will be the United States. The Arab nations will do next to nothing and Europe will probably do even less.