Just a note that I am scheduled to be on the radio again. Tomorrow, Friday (August 17th) I am scheduled to be a guest on the "Iron Sharpens Iron" radio program, hosted by Chris Arnzen. The program airs from 3pm to 4pm Eastern time (or 12 noon to 1pm on the West coast) on WNYG, 1440AM. The program also broadcasts on the Internet at www.wnygspiritofny.com.
Friday is "The Pastor's Roundtable" where the format allows for listeners to call in with their questions. The call in number is 1-631-321-9694. You can listen in and see if my voice matches the picture on this blog page. Better yet, call in and participate in the show.
An old friend from my past, Ron Glass, a pastor in New York state, is also going to be on the program. I haven't seen or talked with Ron in years, so it is something of a small world after all.
Well, we are now about half way through August and all of the divisional races are up for grabs. The formerly large leads of the Red Sox and the Brewers are gone. The Dodgers (who had the best record in the NL only about 3 weeks ago) have gone into a tailspin and are now in 4th place in the NL west. But the Yankees are charging in the AL East.
Here are a few observations about the contenders:
The Red Sox and Yankees in the AL East: Well, this seems to happen every year. The Yankees are seemingly hopeless, mired in poor play and team dissension. The manager and general manager's job are in jeopardy, etc., etc. Well, they are now only 4 games out and the Red Sox, who seemed to come up with a coup by getting Eric Gagne, have been playing terribly and their bullpen can't hold anything. If the Red Sox end up losing this division and missing the playoffs (see AL West), some heads are going to roll in Beantown.
The Tigers and Indians in the AL Central: This will probably come down to whoever can put together some kind of streak in the last two weeks of the season. Right now, though, I like Cleveland to pull this out. The Tigers will be home for the post season, the wildcard is not coming from this division.
The Angels and Mariners in the AL West: The Angels will drive their fans crazy by playing poorly against poor teams. It just doesn't seem though that there is enough juice on any other team in the west to catch them, and I wouldn't be surprised if they don't end the season with the best record in the AL and in baseball. That being said, the Mariners look like a very good team and I think may end up as the wildcard team.
The Mets, Phillies and Braves in the AL East: The Mets are like Boston. They may very well end up losing this division and not being in the playoffs at all. They have been killed with injuries, their starting pitching (always suspect) has been terrible, their middle relief worse. LoDuca is now on the DL and has generally had a bad season and may indicate the beginning of the downhill part of his career. The Braves helped themselves the most at the trade deadline, but this division is a toss up. My "guess" is that the Phillies pull this out.
The Brewers and Cubs in the NL Central: I just doubt that the Cubs can pull this off. The combination of the Sorriano injury and the tendency of Lou Pinnela to implode under pressure will probably sink the Cubs and the Brewers will win this division (which will still be one of the surprises of the year). The Cardinals are a nice story with Rick Ankiel coming back as an outfielder, but their highly over-rated manager combined with some declining players will keep them a sub-.500 team this year.
The Diamondbacks, Padres, Rockies and Dodgers in the NL West: Arizona has simply been playing out of their minds for about 3 weeks and coupled with the Dodgers dropping from 2 up to 6 behind in about two weeks has put them in a very good position. My only hope as a Dodger fan is that Arizona cannot possibly keep up this pace, and that they tanked for a while last year and then went on a 15-0 run. If they can turn it around and do that again they will still win this division. But things are not well. Lowe is clearly hurt and not pitching well, Penny and Billingsley are pitching great, but getting no runs. The Dodgers simply have stopped hitting. Retaining Hendrickson and Tomko in the rotation is not going to get the job done (it will be hard to imagine a long winning streak with them starting 2 of the 5 games in rotation), but they don't have a lot of other options right now. The Padres and Rockies have moved up really because the Dodgers have played so badly. If the Dodgers don't turn it around, Arizona wins and the Padres are the NL wildcard.
The Dodgers just lost a game to Arizona to fall 2 behind in the NL west. This isn't great but it is also not a huge concern. Billingsley pitched a great game into the 8th when one pitch was up and went out for a home run. Billingsley continues to impress with his pitching.
What is troubling a bit about the Dodgers, both the managerial decisions by Grady Little and the personnel decisions by Ned Colletti is the clear reluctance to play the younger players. It seems like only injuries or changes that they are almost forced into are the way the young players get in.
For example, tonight. Jeff Kent is hurt and so the Dodgers start Ramon Martinez (again) at second base. This is even though they just brought up Delwyn Young from AAA (where he was hitting about .343, 16 home runs, and 79 RBI's (and Young is a Second Baseman). What did the Dodgers do tonight? They have Luis Gonzales (who has looked terrible at the plate for about a week) take the night off and put Young in left field (instead Either who is hitting nearly .300 and always hits left handed pitching well). Martinez is a good spare part for a team, but he's hitting less than .200. James Loney probably needed a rest, but this is an important series for the Dodgers, so Loney sits and Olmedo Seanz plays first. Seanz is hitting less than .200 and is showing signs of becoming expendable (and about 50 lbs overweight).
Was a lineup with Martinez and Seanz (with Nomar) playing; Young playing out of position, and Either and Loney on the bench really the best that Little could put on the field to start an important series?
It is also good to remember that Russell Martin would only have gotten into the lineup last year because of an injury and the fact the Dodgers had no other choices. Billingsley was wasted the first half of this season in the bullpen while we suffered through the combined inconsistency of Mark Hendrickson and Bret Tomko. It takes an injury to Randy Wolf to get Billingsley firmly into the rotation, although we still suffer with Hendickson and Tomko despite having Eric Stults languishing in the bullpen. Even James Loney was only called up and given the first base job when it was clear that something had to be done to get more hitting.
The team spends $3 million to sign a 43 year old Roberto Hernandez, who has done exactly zero since he was called up; despite the fact that they have Jonathan Meloan having a great year at AA and now posting very good numbers in AAA, and he remains in AAA while we watch Hernandez give up more runs. They also have Eric Hull who sits and gets used inconsistently.
The signing of both Luis Gonzales and Juan Pierre were odd to me, especially after Either had such a good year last year in left field. Now, both have hit well, even though their combined poor defense still annoys me to no end. They are both below average defensive outfielders (Gonzalez now because of age has limited range and now a far below average throwing arm), Pierre maybe the worst throwing arm of any center fielder in baseball and only his speed makes up for poor jumps and odd routes to the ball. But that being said, they have both helped the club offensively.
Every team needs balance (although I think the balance between olders and younger players is a little over rated) but it really only works when the older players can still play well. When a team goes out to get players to play where younger players have already demonstrated at the big league level they can perform (Loney, Either, and Billingsley [who was 7-3 as a starter last year, hardly a poor performance]) I would contend that despite what those players may say for public consumption, it is a frustration and discouragement when they either go back to the minors, sent to the bullpen or are replaced by an aging and now inferior player (can anyone argue that Either would not have better all around numbers than Gonzales if he were playing everyday?).
I have been critical of Nomar (who was resigned for $8.5 million in what was clearly a panic signing after J. D. Drew fled for more money) this season and people wonder why since he is hitting about .280 and leading the NL in RISP average. But I contend (despite his recent three home runs), that it's a mirage. Of his 105 hits, only 20 are for extra bases (15 doubles and 5 home runs). So with 105 hits he only has 139 total bases! Andy LaRoche was brought up for a little while, but never really given a chance to play consistently. LaRoche right now is an upgrade in offense and Nomar is an upgrade over Seanz (or Martinez) on the bench. With either of those two being designated for assignment.
I think the Dodgers will win the NL west and do well in the post season. If they hit a hot streak (which they really have not done yet this year, I mean like a 9-1 or 15-3 run) they could easily end up with the best record in the NL. But somewhere along the line they have to trust in their younger players, who for the most part could hardly do any worse than some of the veterans they insist on using now.
Ned Colletti worked under Brian Sabean with the Giants (and apparently picked up some of Sabean's tendencies to favor older players), but if Colletti would take a look at the Giants he can see where that philosophy will take a team. The Giants are certainly the oldest and perhaps the slowest team in baseball. Poor fielding (good fielding average only because they make the plays they can get too with below average range at almost every position), and no base running ability to speak of.
Now, the Giants have an excuse, they don't have a minor league system full of good prospects); but the Dodgers have no excuse. Colletti spent way too much money on older, unproductive players and he's stuck with them (unless he learned the obvious hypnotic ability of Sabean, who got the Pirates GM Dave Littlefield to not only take Matt Morris, but his entire salary off his hands). They are stuck with $8.5 million to Nomar and $7 million to Luis Gonzalez for next year (that's a good percentage that could go towards A-Rod). We'll give him a pass on the $7.5 million to Juan Pierre, although that was probably 2 years and about $2 million a year too much. The $15 million for Jason Schmidt was acceptable and his shoulder injury was not entirely predictable, those things happen. But then between Roberto Hernandez ($3 mil), Mark Hendickson ($2.9 mil) and Brett Tomko ($4.1 mil), that's a lot of Mr. McCourt's money that could have been spent a lot more wisely.
Resisting the temptation to trade good prospects for marginal short term results is good, but only if you are going to use the prospects! The Dodger motto, "Think Blue!" is great, but Colletti and Little need something on their desks that says: "Think Youth!"