The veterans on the Dodgers, well at least Jeff Kent, have made some noise of discontent about the way they have been treated and the downfall of the team in the last two months. From the outside looking in this does not sound like "veteran leadership" not that anyone has ever accused Jeff Kent of being a "leader" for any team he has ever played for.
The main problem with the Dodgers come down to about three things: (1) disappointing starting pitching; (2) signing of players who made no real contribution; and (3) the decision to not play the best players on the team consistently.
First of all, as I have noted in the past, the Dodgers had a couple of problems with starting pitching. First of all the injury to Jason Schmidt, while bad in terms of economics, happened so early in the season that he really didn't contribute and his loss should have been fixed. The loss of Randy Wolf, who was pitching well was tough. However, by any standard Billingsley should have been in the rotation from the beginning, not Hendrickson or Tomko. The Dodgers were never able to put together a winning streak longer than five games (and that only twice), mainly because between the fourth and fifth spot in the rotation a loss was almost guaranteed. Those two never were able to both win games in the same rotation cycle at any time this year. Every playoff bound team at some point in the season was (and should be able to) put together a significant winning streak of 8-12 games.
The Dodgers did get David Wells, who has been successful and shown really what "veteran leadership" is about. But seriously I doubt he is back next year when he will be 45 years old. Estaban Loiza in theory is a rotation pitcher, but except for one game he has not been impressive. Unless he is traded, the Dodgers are stuck with his contract next year, so one can wish that after playing and a spring training he can regain his touch (remember he only played the last month or so after being on the DL all season). If Penny can put together an entire season of dominance then he's a Cy Young candidate. Lowe just seems to lose concentration sometimes, but when he's on he is still a top flight starter. Billingsley is shown that he's the real thing (almost against Little's will it seems).
The second problem caused the third. That is, Ned Colletti signed players that were not needed and could only end up causing problems. Nomar is at the end of his career (whether he realizes it or not) and is simply a back up next year, and he needs to be told that so he can either live with it or retire or be traded. He can't play shortstop any more and while he's sort of adequate as a fielder at first and third, he no longer hits anything beyond singles. His high RISP average is misleading, because he would usually hit singles. Of his 122 hits, only 24 are for extra bases (7 home runs and 14 doubles). The late season signing of Shea Hillenbrand (a singular waste of money) was simply pointless. Let Andy LaRoche play and play consistently. But that is the third problem. The acquisition of Mike Sweeny was good, he can still hit off the bench and is still an above average fielding first baseman. He is necessary because Olmedo Saenz's career is clearly over, hitting below .200 all year. But look at what Colletti staffed his team with for the stretch run: Hillenbrand and Sweeny joined Saenz, all of whom can only play third and/or first. At least Ramon Martinez can play all of the infield positions. So Little was stuck with a bench with very little flexibility.
Finally, the signings and trades left Little in a position of making a choice: (1) trying to make everyone happy, or (2) putting the best team he could on the field every night. The "veterans" on the team (as Kent helped expose) apparently didn't make his job easier. There is no doubt that the best team, with the best chance of winning did not include Nomar (at any position) or Gonzalez in left. Gonzalez can still hit a little, but with him in left (and Pierre in center) I wonder how many runs their defense gave up this season as singles became doubles with great regularity and runners who should have stopped at second or third just kept running knowing that neither of them can throw a ball more than about 100 feet (and that with a long slow arch). Had Jason Repko not been hurt, the best outfield Little could have marched out every day would have been Ethier, Repko and Kemp. As a fan I could care less if Gonzalez gets to 3,000 hits in his career, baseball is a team game and teams need to field their best team every day. Nomar has been a great player in the past, but last year was clearly an aberration, his days as a front line starting player are over.
Now, Jeff Kent has sounded off to the media. Well, I'm sorry but this is not how "veteran leadership" leads. I will admit that Kent has at least done his part offensively. He's back next year (unless he is traded) but he now has very limited range at second base and needs to realize that he will be replaced in late innings for defense next year and will get a day or so a week off. And, if his hitting and power decline next year (he has only hit 20 home runs this year so far), he should join Nomar on the bench. Kent at least wants to win a world series more than try to hang around for some personal stats. He's going to the Hall of Fame without doubt, but his demeanor towards younger players has never been useful. I wonder how much he has helped them learn the game (like Abreu) rather than just prodding and sniping.
Ned Colletti, by the philosophy he's used has, I think, discouraged the younger players (who are the future stars for the team and probably in the league). Clearly Loney was hurt by the philosophy, struggling at AAA at the beginning of the season when he was idiotically sent down after Spring Training. LaRoche was never allowed to play every day and grow into the job. Ethier should have had a much cleaner road to the starting line up and I'm sure the signing of Gonzalez did not help his morale at all. Hopefully, if he shows that he is ready in the Spring, Clayton Kershaw won't have to stay in the minors. Jonathan Meloan should also be in the majors next year.
Little should, for the rest of this season, send a message about what the future of the Dodgers actually is and sit the "veterans" who didn't do much to help, and play the team that will be the Dodgers next year so they can see what the reality is and learn to be team players or make plans for relocation or retirement next season.
With the Dodgers losing a double header today against Colorado, the slim chances they had to make the playoffs are essentially gone. They would pretty much have to win out the season (11-0) and even with that the best they can do on their own is gain 3 games on Arizona (whom they currently trail by 5 1/2 games).
Waiting until next year is sort of common for Dodger fans, but next year will be the 50th Anniversary of the team coming to Los Angeles and the 20th Anniversary of their last World Series appearance, so perhaps the numbers are coming together.
For next year the Dodgers are pretty much set on position players. Gonzalez will not be back, and Nomar will hopefully retire or accept the fact that he is going to be a bench player. Hopefully next spring Furcal can get through Spring training without injuring himself; his ankle was never good all year, and if you remember Jason Repko (who collided with him) wasn't able to play this year at all. If Kent is used properly and rested sufficiently alternating with Abreu, it looks like he has another good year left. The key will be Loney, Ethier, and Kemp playing everyday, all year. Add to that mix LaRoche at third everyday all year and maybe letting Liberthal play just a little bit more and resting Martin (for his own good), they should put up enough offense. I've complained enough about Pierre, but we're stuck with him, so as long as Ethier and Kemp are in the outfield that should be enough defense. I do hope Repko is back healthy though next year. An outfield of Ethier, Repko, and Kemp; at least once in a while, would be nice.
What killed the Dodgers this year was starting pitching. Losing Schmidt was bad, but it was complicated by their insistence on trying to make Tomko and Hendrickson work in the rotation, especially after Wolf was lost for the season (maybe the biggest loss). The result was they never had a winning streak longer than 5 games all year. The other issue was a bullpen that was used way to much and too often. Billingsley (11-5 and 3.10 ERA) should have started all year. So next year what do we have? Lowe, Penny and Bilingsley are set. Schmidt probably should not be counted on for much and may not even be ready for spring training. Clayton Kershaw will be 20 and is the consensus best pitching prospect in all of the minor leagues. Does he jump from AA, where he spent all but the last month, to the majors next year?
The one unknown is the odd and irritating penchant Ned Colletti has for insisting on older players (look where that theory got the Giants). He nearly killed Loney by sending him back to AAA at the beginning of the season. He went out and spent $10 million on an unnecessary left fielder, when Ethier would have certainly put up better numbers than Gonzalez, and Kemp wasn't going to learn anything at Las Vegas. And, of course he signed Pierre before he knew Repko would be lost all season. It seems that he has to be forced into allowing younger guys to play. If he sticks with Nomar and starts LaRoche in AAA next year it will be a clear sign he didn't learn anything this year.
Hopefully he won't spend a bunch of money on an unneeded position player, unless A-Rod opts out and he wants to try for him. If a front line starting pitcher is available that would be a good investment. But please Ned, let the kids play next year!
The Dodgers are entering the last 23 games and probably the most important nine games in the next 10 days. They begin three games in San Francisco tonight (where for some reason they've played exceptionally well) and then come home for three games with San Diego and then three with Arizona. They got what they needed in Chicago, three wins and only one loss; and yesterday's win could go a long way in terms of confidence. The season will largely be settled by Sunday the 16th. The Dodgers need to go at least 7-2 in this stretch.
Finally, Grady Little (and Ned Colletti, I guess) have figured out that Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier in the lineup everyday will help win games (both had home runs yesterday). Luis Gonzales is gone after this season, and all in all, despite the fact that he's a great guy and has caused no problems at all, it has to go down as a bad signing for Colletti. That $10.6 million could have gone elsewhere.
The main problem for the Dodgers in the stretch has been that they have had only one winning streak of five games. The speedbumps that were formerly in the starting rotation; Tomko (now in San Diego) and Hendrickson (now in the bullpen, hopefully gone next year) pretty much guaranteed that there would be no long winning streaks. Adding Wells and Loiza is an upgrade in the rotation, not sure if it's enough though. Penny, Lowe and Billingsley have to win out. And has anyone noticed that Billingsley has very quietly been the one to stop losing streaks?
The oddest signing down the stretch has to be Shea Hillenbrand. He can't hit, his range is limited at 3rd base; he makes dumb as a brick decisions running the bases (which compounds the fact that he can't run). Fortunately, they are letting LaRoche play, even though he is clearly not 100%. Mike Sweeny was a good pick up. Can still hit, especially as a pinch hitter, and remains a slightly above average fielding first baseman.
If the Dodgers make the post season (the are 3 1/3 out of first place and 2 1/2 out of the wildcard), they need to make some roster decisions. Here are the issues:
Nomar Garciaparra, off the DL, but by all accounts can't run past first base. Hasn't played in about two months, was going to lose his job at third anyway. It will be a big ego hit for him, but he should not be on the post season active roster.
Olmedo Saenz, has finally hit the end. Hasn't hit at all, can only play first or third (and that not very well). Will not contribute and, with Sweeny on board, he is no longer needed. He should not be on the post-season roster.
Shea Hillenbrand: Not sure why he was signed in the first place, except for one game, he has done nothing. Definitely not on the post season roster.
Andy LaRoche: should be starting at third the rest of the season, his bat will help the Dodgers make it to the post-season. Definitely on the post-season roster.
In pitching, I would keep Meloan and not Hendrickson, but since Hendrickson is a left hander, they probably will keep him, and I doubt Colletti has completely shaken off his sticking with "veteran" players habit yet.
Ramon Martinez verses Tony Abreu poses some interesting choices. Martinez is dependable, can play almost any position and occasionally hits. Abreu is the same, hits better, better fielding range, but lacks experience. Coin toss, but with Abreu's running speed, I would go young for the roster.
By next week we should have a good idea if the Dodgers are going to make the playoffs or not. Then it will be time to look at next season.