October 31, 2007

Who Will be the Next Dodger Manager?

Ah, for the days when Walter O'Malley owned the Dodgers. Things were clear, consistent, and the team was generally absent the soap opera quality that plagues some other teams. Oh well, those days are gone.

The Dodger managerial show continues with little really clear, certainly not consistent, and it does look a little like a soap opera. Grady Little has resigned and the Dodgers are looking for a new manager, although I'm not really sure how much "looking" is going on. Joe Torre seems to almost be ready to pick out furniture for his office at Dodger Stadium.

There have been several versions and strains for this story. The most prevalent version now is that after the Dodger collapse last season the General Manager, Ned Colletti met with Grady Little and his coaches; and while taking the blame for the way the season ended, he nonetheless layed some of the fault at Little and his staff. This apparently upset Little, who then indicated he wasn't sure he'd be back next year. So Colletti began looking at other options.

One story is that Colletti wanted to hire Joe Girardi and offered him the job, but he took the Yankee job instead. If that is the case then Girardi was offered the job before Little announced his resignation. The other version is that Girardi or Joe Torre were prime candidates, but since Little hadn't made an decision and the Yankee situation was fluid, no real decision had been reached. In this scenario Little was "still the Dodger manager" and would have been back in 2008 if he wanted to be back.

The actual story is probably only known to a handful of people, but in all probability Little was going to be gone one way or another. Little was under contract for 2008 and so if he was fired, then the club would have been on the hook for his salary. If he "resigned" then that would not be the case; so the resignation part of the story needs a little clarification, since it is hard to believe someone would just walk away from his salary.

Now, onto Joe Torre. If you watch the ESPN interview with Tom Lasorda, he tries to say that he has no real knowledge of the situation as he has been traveling; but then he speaks of Joe Torre and the Dodgers in such a way as to indicate that the deal is done (I doubt that Lasorda has been kept in the dark entirely on this affair). If the deal is done what does Joe Torre mean for the Dodgers? Some points:

  • Torre brings a great managerial record (with the Yankees) to the table. But, in baseball history the number of managers who take different clubs to the playoffs is small, and the number who take different teams to the World Series is even smaller. The odds, at this level, do not favor Torre.
  • Torre was successful "with the Yankees." I wonder how much of his success was the right guy in the right situation. That is, was the looney bin, that are the Yankees, a place where Torre could thrive where he could not or will not in other places? In history the are lots of examples of "great leaders" who were, for instance, great during war time or other crisis but were terrible during "regular" times. That doesn't make Torre less a successful manager, it is simply reality. He was really only marginally average to below average in his other managerial opportunities.
  • Torre's shortcomings are well known and documented. He clearly does not handle pitching staffs and bullpens well. This may be a little over stated and perhaps a strong pitching coach could control that more effectively. His experience in bringing along young players, especially pitchers, is a little thin.
  • One common feature to Torre's Yankees, especially the last several years, are the horrible starts they get off to. That is a tendency that can't be ignored. A young team, like the Dodgers, really can't afford to be buried early in the season. Also the National League West may well be the toughest division in baseball now and for several years to come. During Torre's run with the Yankees they really only had to compete with the Red Sox in that division with occasional spurts from Toronto. Baltimore and Tampa Bay were always non-factors. Besides the Dodgers; Arizona and Colorado will be formidable and San Diego will be very good. Only the Giants look to be down for a couple of more years.

What also is interesting is evaluating Ned Colletti and his direction for the team. Did Grady Little's desire to make everyone happy fail and lead to a situation where the clubhouse separated and melted down? (Understanding, of course, having Jeff Kent in your clubhouse makes that more likely on the best of days). Or did Ned Colletti insist that Little not put an "all youth" team on the field, insisting that the guys he signed (Gonzales, Pierre, Nomar) be played regularly. Or, was Little simply not a strong enough personality to convince Colletti that these these three (and Kent) were not helping the team?

Colletti's signals are mixed at best. He doesn't trade any of the core of the young upcoming stars at the trade deadline, so that's good. But he saddled the team with an overpaid Luis Gonzales, but only for a one year contract, so that's perhaps OK as a bridge. Against all the opinion in the western world he signed Juan Pierre to an unbelievable contract for four years, and the Dodger pitchers paid for it all year. In theory there was no way to know that Nomar would just completely fail; but he was a guy without a position and should never have been re-signed (for two years). The Jason Schmidt signing could be viewed as perhaps a little too generous, but not outrageously so, and his injury was unpredictable. However, the signings he made at the end of the season when the team was floundering, with the exception perhaps of Mike Sweeny, bordered on insanity. Only the David Wells signing paid any dividends. The question is whether or not Colletti is committed to building a this team with the great young talent he has on hand or not. There is no way to really know what his intentions are.

The bottom line is that except for a starting pitching, the Dodgers, as currently constructed, are a very good team. They simply need #4 and #5 rotation guys who can between them win more than 6 games for the entire season. They also need to clear out the bench and get good solid back ups (who know they are back ups) on board. Kent needs to be traded, Nomar as well, or simply released. If Jason Repko is healthy and producing like he was before he was hurt, I'd much rather see his great defense and strong arm in the outfield than Juan Pierre.

The A-Rod thing to me is silly. You sign a player for two reasons: He will help your club achieve its goals and at some level will bring people out for the games. That it was announced during the World Series game that he was going to "opt out" of his contract doesn't bother me and I don't think it says a thing about him. Fox Sports was probably happy to have something to talk about rather than one of the most boring and lopsided series in history. Will A-Rod be on the top of his game for the next five years? Probably, and since Dodger stadium is a much better hitter's park than it used to be (there is virtually no foul territory any more), he would do well there. And while the Dodgers had a great average attendance last year, having A-Rod would certainly sell more tickets. Will Mr. McCourt pay $30+ million a year for a five year deal; well it's probably a better investment than the cumulative contracts of Kevin Brown, Todd Hundley, and Darren Dreifort (with the $10 million contract for Luis Gonzales thrown in).

Is Joe Torre the right guy? Well, he's 68 so how many years does he have left. He may be able to bring Don Mattingly with him as a coach (Mattingly's son Preston is in the Dodger organization, but did not have a good year last year). The Dodgers do need coaching help. Their 3rd base coach, Rich Donnelly, was an utter disaster. He seemed to have no real working knowledge of the opposition outfielders or the running speed of his own players. I'm not sure how Rick Honeycutt was as a pitching coach (but of course Leo Mazzone is currently available I think). Their batting coach I think had the job because the Dodgers were on the hook for his salary anyway. Bill Mueller might be good, I'm just not sure.

At best, Torre is a bridge manager, 2-4 years maximum. As a Dodger fan I'd rather go with a younger "Mike Scioscia" type guy. With solid minor league experience and an understanding of how to bring along and develop young players. The Dodger tradition has been stability in the managers' position, but since the days of Fox's ownership and now the McCourt's that trademark isn't there and Torre is not the one to bring it back.

My vote, again, is Ron Roenicke, bench coach for the Angels. He came up through the Dodger system in the late 1970's and early 80's. He's been a very successful minor league manager (manager of the year at two different levels) and managed at all three levels in the minors and won championships. He's been the third base coach and now the bench coach with the very successful run of the Angels. He knows the Dodger tradition, he knows Southern California, he's gotten good training working with Scioscia.

While Torre may have what the Dodgers need in the short run, Roenicke has what the Dodgers need for the long run.

Posted by Narnia3 at 1:12 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 30, 2007

Grady Little is Gone (UPDATE)

About an hour after I post the below, Grady Little announced that he was resigning as manager of the Dodgers for "personal reasons." I'll examine this a little more closely tomorrow.


In the last couple of days one thing has become crystal clear, Grady Little will not be the manager of the Dodgers next year. The rumors of Joe Girardi getting the job if he didn't get the Yankeee job have been replaced with the Joe Torre will become the manager of the Dodgers.

If Grady Little's job was really safe one would assume that the Dodgers GM and PR department would have put the kibosh to these rumors early, quickly, and firmly. Since none of that has happened we can read between the lines and see that Grady's tenure is all but officially over.

Joe Torre may be a great manager, but he's 68 and I would rather see the Dodgers move in a direction of stability with a younger guy who will be around a long time (we do pine for the days of Walter Alston followed by Tommy Lasorda). I think Ron Roenicke would be a much better place to look. Torre's [mis]handling of pitchers and bullpens has been widely reported and commented on, but that may be a bit overdone. A good pitching coach should be handle that aspect of Torre's weakness.

The question is what direction this signals for the Dodgers; a commitment to youth where Jeff Kent is dealt away (preferably to a last place team in the American League) and Nomar is told he is a back up utility player, period; or will the Dodgers fall into the trap of wanting to have "proven veterans" making up too large a percentage of the lineup? The Dodgers have several all-star calibre young players now, who should be playing everyday. They have an excellent bullpen (that simply got overworked last year). Their weakness is the starting rotation, mainly the four and five spots.

Last season clearly imploded for the Dodgers and Little was unable to keep everyone together and going in the same direction. His failure to put out the best lineup everyday was a result of his trying to keep people happy. In the end, he failed to do either. He was hamstrung with bad signings by Ned Colletti (especially at the end of the season); but Little will pay the price, or better, he already has.

Posted by Narnia3 at 3:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 26, 2007

Is Grady Little Gone?

News reports, mainly from the usually reliable Buster Olney of ESPN, are talking about Joe Girardi becoming the Dodger's manager in 2008 if he doesn't get the Yankee's job. Of course, all of this speculation must be warming the heart of Bud Selig who always puts out a memo to MLB teams asking that no major announcements be made during the World Series (which should be soon unless the Rockies really get going). A little aside, by asking teams not to make major announcements, Selig has created an inability for the involved parties to confirm or deny anything; so the story involving two of the most important MLB teams just continues to bubble.

But onto the story itself. If true this means that Grady Little demonstrated by his inept handling of the lineup and his desire to make everyone happy instead of putting the best team on the field each night that he's not the guy to lead an extremely talented but young team. If the story is untrue, the Dodgers didn't exactly come to Little's defense. The shallow response, "Grady Little is our manager" both says nothing and may say everything about his future.

What I'm not sure about is Girardi. Granted, he and Ned Colletti, the Dodger GM have a long relationship. But what exactly are his qualifications to manage? He has one year experience (with the Marlins in 2006) and he did win the Manager of the Year award. But his (really terrible) team finished below .500. However, it must be said, not nearly as far down as most people expected. After that season he lost a power struggle within the organization (and a very public rebuke of the nutty team owner during a game) and was fired. He may be the right guy, he may be better than Little, there is just not a lot of track record to go on.

If the hiring of Girardi is a real thought in Colletti's mind then perhaps (we can only hope) this means that he is going to go with his young prospects from the beginning. And, if he doesn't get Girardi, then who will be the Dodger manager next year?

I've got a suggestion: Ron Roeneicke, currently of the Los Angeles Angels coaching staff. He's clearly an up and coming managerial prospect, he came up originally in the Dodger organization and so he understands the tradition of the team. He's been with a winning staff for the last several years, managed at three different minior league levels and was manager of the year in two of them. He would be a great choice!

Posted by Narnia3 at 7:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 11, 2007

Back to the Ice

It may seem odd that someone born and raised in Southern California would be a a huge Ice Hockey fan, but I am. The LA Kings are my favorite team and there is hope that the team finally has a general manager who will build a winning team. They have started 1-3-0 but there is still good reason for hope.

The Kings have a couple of the top young players and maybe two legitimate Calder Cup Trophy candidates (Jack Johnson on defense and the 19 year old goalie Jonathan Bernier). There are quite a few new players and the lines are taking some time to get used to each other.

One thing I think is pretty clear though, the team captain, Rob Blake, a certain hall of famer, is not ready to play yet. He had hip surgery this off-season, and he is clearly not 100% yet. His defensive play has been awful; he's a step or two behind, he's getting moved around in front of the net and he's probably been directly responsible for about four goals against. I know he wants to play and lead this team, but it looks like the better idea would be for him to rehab a week or so; or if he is playing his way back into shape, Marc Crawford should cut his ice time a little as his worse play has been late in the game.

I'm not sure if the Kings have enough right now to make the playoffs; the Western Conference is exceptionally strong. But they will be much better than last year.

Tomorrow I'll be at Staples Center. The Boston Bruins are in town (for the first time in about four years) and after the Kings I always liked Boston; or more specifically, I liked #4 Bobby Orr (who, after Wayne Gretsky was probably the best hockey player ever). Hopefully the NHL will fix their horrible scheduling and I won't have to wait for another four years to see Boston in town (or Montreal, Pittsburgh, Toronto, and so on...)

Posted by Narnia3 at 9:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 8, 2007

Did You Ever Have One of Those Weeks?

Like many who I have preceded and many who will follow, I had one of the "those weeks." Things started off badly, and with a few exceptions, got worse.

The week started with a major blow up between two of the leaders in the church were I am currently serving as the "Consulting pastor" (read here "Interim Pastor for a more familiar term). Well, over the course of three days, multiple phone calls and more than a few emails the situation seemed to right itself and a level of harmony returned.

My week at the seminary was not unusual nor even particularly stressful; just a typical busy week and I was pretty tired by the end. Friday started off well enough, a good and profitable meeting with the church leadership, and later I got a report that my surgically repaired shoulder was doing fine and that I would not need any additional follow-ups. I was looking forward to a little mindless rest on Saturday; college football in the morning and the LA Kings hockey home opener on Saturday evening.

Well, things began to go downhill rather quickly. Friday evening I was informed that two other church leaders had an even more major blow up and it was unlikely that it would repair itself anytime soon. So, multiple emails and phone calls (which carried into Saturday) continued to be front burner items as I worked on how we were going to have a functional and God-honoring church service on Sunday.

Well, my hopes for a restful Saturday started off well enough, LSU was losing to Florida, Oklahoma was losing to Texas and Kansas State was beating Kansas (I'm not really a K-State fan, but a seminary student who used to live with my wife and I is, and he, his father and brothers were there watching the game on their annual "Man Trip" which was also going to include their going to the Kansas City Chief's game the next day. BTW, this is one of the best family traditions I've run across in some time).

The phone calls and emails from Friday's episode continued and consumed several hours of the day. In the meantime, LSU came back and won, Texas faded and Oklahoma won, and Kansas came back and beat K-State. (To further spoil my friends' weekend, the Chiefs lost the next day as well). I also felt badly for a seminary colleague, as his favorite team, Nebraska got pummeled by Missouri.

Well, I was certain that my day would get better as the USC Trojans were playing the woeful Stanford Cardinal (who were missing their starting quarterback). I readily admit that there is some remaining perversion in my soul wherein the entire day would have been repaired and the gloom dissipated if the Trojans ran up the score and won by about 50 points. Well, that didn't happen. Stanford, the last team to beat USC at home about 6 years ago, beat them again with a last minute touchdown and the SC quarterback, John David Booty, broke the middle finger on his throwing hand. Even Ohio State won! Which assured them of moving ahead of USC in the polls.

Hopefully, I thought, the Kings would not let me down. And, in this case things started off well. They were up 3-1 against St. Louis and their rookie 19 year old goalie was playing great. But in the third quarter, the defense quit playing, the captain and defenseman Rob Blake played like he was 78 instead of 38, and even Bernier could not stop all of the great chances the Kings allowed. They lost 4-3.

Sunday also began well. At the church where I am the interim pastor, I am preaching a series through the book of Titus and was at the section in chapter one dealing with the qualifications for godly church leadership (God does in fact have a sense of humor and an inerrant providence as to the timing of the ministry of the Word in His churches). The church has two services and after preaching twice I was pretty thoroughly spent. If you've never preached (or preached two sermons back to back) it is both an exhilarating and exhausting endeavor. However, God was honored and pleased to use a weak (and in many ways exhausted) vessel. Complicated by the fact that on this day my knees were constantly reminding me of their complaint about my youth, where I often engaged in activities that had caused them to require surgical repair on several occasions. The response to the service was excellent and many encouraging things are going on in the church. The encouragement was followed by a few emails later in the day as well.

I got home and feel asleep, awaking just in time for my beloved Green Bay Packers to play the Chicago Bears. Now I have been a Packers fan, essentially since I could walk. I was certain that my weekend, sports-wise, would be salvaged. The Packers went up 7-0 with Bret Farve looking great. But I should have known that something was wrong. At game time (for a night game) it was 80 degrees at Lambeau Field on the first Sunday in October! Well, they could have been up 21-0 by the end of the first quarter, except two fumbles by the wide receiver (after making big gains), and other missed opportunities allowed the Bears to stay in the game. Despite a halftime lead of 20-7, the Packers lost the game.

Well, I stumbled off to bed a few hours later and had a nightmare that Ned Colletti, the general Manager of the Dodgers, had traded Matt Kemp and James Loney to the Reds for Ken Griffey Jr and Adam Dunn to bring a veteran presence to the club. Waking up in a cold sweat at that prospect I also awoke with a severe migraine (I get those once in a while).

After taking medication that removes the pain (but renders me incapable of driving or operating dangerous machinery), I was reading about the shooting in Crandon, WI on the internet. This is where an off-duty deputy sheriff had gone berserk and killed several people before he was killed himself. My brother-in-law, is pastor of a good evangelical church in the small town. It's the type of town where everyone knows everyone. His church had become the center for gathering for news the day of the tragedy and for counseling and consoling today and likely for days to follow. He will undoubtedly officiate at many of the funerals that will be held in the next week or so. He has already acted as the spokesman for the family of the young man who did the shooting. My brother-in-law is a unique guy; he's on the local school board and an assistant coroner in the county, along with being the pastor and, by all accounts, has a great ministry in that city.

As I was praying for him and the situation there this morning, I realized that I didn't really have such a bad week after all.

Posted by Narnia3 at 3:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
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