I've been remiss in blogging of late (too many deadlines, not enough days, and unfortuntely since last March not enough days of good health) but now that the Dodgers have finally gotten into first place in the NL west there is a reason to write something.
Down the stretch the Dodgers have played great at home, but now they only have six games left at the Stadium and the rest on the road. One would think that they have the advantage over Arizona, since the D-Backs have four games on the road in St. Louis while the Dodgers get to play four in Pittsburgh. But, they also recently lost three to the Nationals of all teams, so nothing is a lock.
One of the interesting issues with the Dodgers is the creation of a 25 man playoff roster. In the playoffs you ideally want to have the most flexibility as possible. They have several unknowns right now with some otherwise key players who are injured.
The two key players in my view are Rafael Furcal and Takashi Saito. If Saito can re-take the closer role then the Dodgers are that much stronger. Broxton has been good, but not convincing, since he took over. Furcal hasn't played since April and is coming off back surgery. He is working out with the team, so it's possible, but not likely he can play. Fortunately for the Dodgers Angel Berroa has actually remembered how to hit in the last month. But if Furcal can play at all he'll be on the roster (and so will Berroa).
Here are the touchy decisions for Joe Torre:
The Dodgers need to carry four outfielders. The first three are easy: Manny, Kemp and Ethier. But then who? Juan Pierre? Pierre is the worst fielding outfielder in baseball and can only play center or left. He's a good contact hitter who essentially only hits singles though. Can steal bases when he gets on. Andruw Jones? Perhaps the biggest bust free agent signing of the year. Can't hit at all, still plays a good, but not great outfield. Hurt and essentially useless to the team all year.
My choice: Jason Repko. He's an excellent fielder, great arm, can play all three positions very well. Excellent baserunner, and will hit for some power. Repko gives the Dodgers the most flexibility and options as the fourth outfielder. It will hurt two large egos and put lots of Mr. McCourt's money on the sidelines, but it's the best move for the team.
Mike Sweeny has really been a bust this year as well. Not hitting off the bench or any other time. Plays a decent first base, but that's it. In this case, I think you tell Mike it's been nice, but you keep Nomar on the playoff roster. He can play all the infield positions and can still come up with the clutch hit on occasion. If there is room then keep Delwyn Young over Sweeny as well.
Hopefully Jeff Kent will not be able to play and that decision will be easy. Blake DeWitt is a much better choice to start right now. Kent is a virtual statue at second base already and coming off a knee operation his mobility is not likely to be any better. If he can play, then he's little more than a pinch hitter, and if he can't start he's not likely to be a useful influence on the team.
On the pitching staff, you go with a four man rotation in the playoffs. Billingsley, Lowe and Kuroda are easy. But then what? Greg Maddux has not been effective since the Dodgers got him, and while Kerhsaw has struggled at times, he also probably gives you the best chance to win a game. Kershaw should be the fourth starter and Maddux goes to long relief.
If Saito can't go then you still have Broxton, Kuo and Park at the back end. Personally, I would keep Elbert on the roster as well. You can never have enough left handed pitching (especially ones who can throw in the middle to high 90's). Biemel is a lock and so is another rookie, Corey Wade. Proctor has been back but not really effective, but if they keep 12 pitchers he probably gets the nod over Troncosco.
The other pitching factor is Brad Penny. Watching his two starts when he came off the DL (and then went back on), this was a guy who clearly was hurt, like shoulder surgery hurt. He'd lost 5-6 mph off his fastball and worse, he was altering he mechanics. If they thinks he's available it could only be in relief, but I think this is wishful thinking.