The BCS system has given all of us another mixed bag of games to watch over the New Year's weekend in a year in which another undefeated team (Boise State) was relegated off to a minor consolation bowl. Yes, I known Boise State lost to TCU by one point, but imagine how difficult it would be to get a group of college players up for a game on Christmas Eve, when they were undefeated and ranked in the top ten. The BCS games this year should have at least one exciting game, one or two competitive games and two blow outs.
Since I'm always willing to put my opinion out on the line, her are my predictions for the Five BCS Bowl Games next week (listed in order of the game):
The Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State January 1st 1:30pm
USC comes in with the best college defense in the country holding teams well under 10 points per game allowing only 93 total all season (unfortunately 27 in the one game they lost to Oregon State and actually 23 in the Stanford game they won handily; so they only gave up a total of 43 points in their other 10 games). Even though they have played a more conservative offense this year, they can still put up 40+ points in a hurry. Penn State (with Big 10 companion Ohio State) was perhaps one of the most over-rated teams this season. Besides the two Division 1a schools they paid to scrimmage with them and a win over a horrible Syracuse team, they also played in the Big 10, which was probably the worst BCS Conference this year (and won't be much better next year). USC hasn't lost to a Big Ten team since 1996. This game won't be close, the one thing going for Penn State is that Pete Carroll almost never runs up the score. Pete Carroll and Joe Paterno do have one good thing in common, they (along with Mack Brown and a few others), intently dislike the BCS system.
Final Score: USC 47 Penn State 13
The Orange Bowl: Cincinanti vs. Virginia Tech Jannuary 1st 5:30pm
In perhaps one of the worst BCS system game contrivances ever, two teams not even in the Top Ten are featured here; locked in because of conference affiliations, at least on Virginia Tech's part. Perhaps the only thing that will save the TV ratings of this game is the fact that the schedulers arranged things so there is no other game anywhere near that time slot. Virginia Tech (9-4) is a weak offensive team with a decent defense and good special teams. Cincinanti (11-2) is a very good overall team with a very hot commodity in its head coach Brian Kelly. Amazingly, the Bearcats have used five different quarterbacks (usually not a good sign) and still put up an impressive offense. The game will be competitive between two middle of the road teams from weak conferences. While this could go either way, I think...
Final Score: Cincinanti 31 Virginia Tech 24
The Sugar Bowl: Utah vs Alabama January 2nd 5pm
This might be the one interesting game of the lot. Utah forced it's way into the BCS by going undefeated and Alabama was undefeated until it's loss to Florida in the SEC Championship Game. While some might see this as Offense (Utah) vs Defense (Alabama), that's not really the case. Utah was only 32nd in total yards and Alabama was a very, very average 60th. In average points per game Utah was 15th and Alabama was 30th. Both of these are defensive teams. Alabama only gave up 167 points all season and Utah only gave up 207. The difference is that if Alabama gets behind and are forced to pass, they are pretty much doomed with their 97th ranked passing offense. I think the Tide, like Penn State, was rather over-rated all year. Utah wants to show that they belong with the "big" programs and they have a strong enough passing game to do it. My prediction...
Final Score: Utah 32 Alabama 17
The Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Texas January 5th 5pm
Welcome to the biggest mismatch of the Bowl Season. Somehow at the last minute, the computer programers figured out a way to put Ohio State into the Top Ten (even though they are ranked 46th in scoring) and are matched against a Texas Longhorn team that arguably should have been in the Championship game (ranked 5th in scoring). Texas scored nearly 200 more points that Ohio State and that might be about what happens in Arizona. Unlike Pete Carroll, Mack Brown has no qualms about running up the score and our prediction is that he will do just that as Texas uses the Buckeyes as their personal protest against the BCS system. OSU has been unceremoniously blown out in its last two bowl games and then were decimated by USC in its only really big game in the regular season (not counting the loss to Penn State). OSU is ranked 104th in passing and only 27th in rushing (and will be going against the Longhorns 2nd ranked rush defense). This game will be largely decided by halftime.
Final Score: Texas 63 Ohio State 9
The BCS Championship Game: Florida vs. Oklahoma January 8th 5pm
The Campionship Game will at least be entertaining. These are at least deserving teams who won two of the more competitive conferences this season. On paper Florida has the stronger defense, but in reality neither team is a defensive giant. These are both powerful offensive-minded teams with very good quarterbacks and excellent running games. Florida gets something of a home field advantage playing the game in Miami. Oklahoma led the nation in scoring at over 50 points per game, but Florida was 3rd. Oklahoma played perhaps a tougher schedule overall, but Florida had to play a much tougher conference championship game. This will be fun to watch and won't be decided until the 4th quarter.
Final Score: Florida 47 Oklahoma 45
PS: If the game goes to overtime, you can probably double those scores and the game will be won on a defense finally stopping a mandatory two-point conversion in about the fifth overtime.
The Dodgers made their first big free agent signing of the year, re-signing Rafael Furcal to a three year $33 million deal (it begins apparently at $6.7 and escalates and there is a team option in the fourth year).
Furcal is 31 and should be at the peak of his career, but he did have back surgery last season and that is always problematic. But when he did come back he hit well, fielded decently, but did almost no running. Staying healthy has been a problem for Furcal. But, when at his top he's one of the top five overall shortstops in baseball. He fields his position well, not as much range as one might expect, but makes up for it with one of the top three arms at short in baseball. That will be needed desperately by the Dodgers, because Casey Blake (who was re-signed), is a very good fielder and accurate thrower, but for anything only hit within three feet either side of him, has no range into the hole at all.
As a hitter Furcal has surprising power and can easily finish a year with 10-15 home runs and can go on incredibly hot streaks at the plate (like early last season before he hurt his back). He gets on base and, if he is healthy, can steal 30+ bases (combined with Matt Kemp, and even Russell Martin, the Dodgers have good team speed). Martin, Furcal, DeWitt and Kemp make the Dodgers fairly strong up the middle; especially if Martin bounces back a little this year and Kemp continues to progress or even really breaks out this year. DeWitt at second is solid, good defense, will show up and play every day, and provide a little power as he progresses (remember he was supposed to be in AA last season), should hit about .270, and he also has very good running speed.
This is a good deal for the Dodgers, they are paying less that his last three year contract (at $39 million) and it's arranged to give the team a little more flexibility at the front end of the deal. He will only be 35 at the end of his option year, just about when shortstops typically begin to decline.
This makes me more inclined to believe the Dodgers will resign Manny Ramirez as well. It makes no sense for Manny to expose himself to the east coast media again and with the signing Furcal (as the Dodgers did three years ago) it shows that the McCourt's are serious about winning this season. So that may tip the scales for Manny.
The real problems for the Dodgers are, if Manny is signed, what to do with Juan Pierre (who wanted to be played or traded last year; perhaps one of the most laughable demands in recent baseball history), and Andruw Jones. Jones is probably the easier of the two; if he shows up overweight to spring training, give him the DFA form and be done with it. Pierre, who will sulk and be a clubhouse problem if he's not starting, will probably need to go also; but I'm not sure how creative Ned Colletti can be.
The Dodgers lost Chan Ho Park who really ate up a lot of good innings for them last year (why does he keep leaving a park where he has his absolute best pitching stats?). Anything they get from Jason Schmidt has to be considered a gift at this point since he hasn't pitched in nearly two years. Perhaps the Dodgers sneak in and get Jake Peavy, althought that would be another large contract obligation. Another big question will be if Scott Proctor has anything left or if he's done. Derrick Lowe was a big loss, but I think the impact of losing Brad Penny is a bit overblown.
There are certainly major league teams that wouldn't mind a rotation of Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda, McDonald and Elbert. Dodger Stadium is still a reasonably pitcher friendly park (though not as much as when there was about 30 more feet of foul territory in play), and in the NL west that rotation could work. If Schmidt gives them 100 innings or so and/or they acquire Peavy (without giving up any starters) then all the better.
The Dodgers have finally begun signing some free agents, today resigning Casey Blake to a three-year deal and also signing Mark Loretta.
The signing of Blake was probably to be expected, but the length is a little long for what they are getting. Blake, after the first couple of weeks in LA, really did little at the plate. His defense is terribly over-rated, he covers almost no ground to either side, but is solid with a good arm for anything hit at him. He'll be 36 when the season starts and will be 39 at the end of the contract. I doubt he will either be with the team or starting by the end of this contract. But, by all accounts, he is serious, professional, and a good guy in the clubhouse (as opposed to the now happily departed Jeff Kent).
In signing Loretta the Dodgers get someone to pinch hit and give you reasonable solid defense at all of the infield positions. He essentially replaces Mark Sweeney. Sweeney was absolutely terrible and wasn't even on the playoff roster. Loretta can still hit but brings no power. The mistake would be to think Loretta is still an everyday player and put him in the middle infield.
The Dodgers are still in the mix for Manny Ramirez and C. C. Sabathia. Signing both would appear to be a stretch, although that would certainly make the Dodgers a heavy favorite for the NL West (which they should almost be anyway with Arizona). I think the key signing still will be to get Rafael Furcal back. With the near stationary Blake at third the Dodgers are going to need someone at short who compensates. The right side of the infield will be better now that Blake DeWitt seems to be the second baseman for 2009 and they have a future gold glove winner at first in James Loney. Hu certainly can field, but couldn't hit at all in the majors. De Jesus is still a year or two away from the majors.
The Dodgers rotation right now would seem to be very young, but potentially very good. Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda are pretty certain. James McDonald and Scott Elbert could round out the rotation. It would be nice to think that Jason Schmidt would contribute something at the back end of the rotation in the final year of his contract; but he essentially hasn't pitched in two years, he's 36 years old, and was declining before he hurt his shoulder. Sabathia would make the Dodgers rotation as formidable as any in the NL.
The NL West looks to be exceptionally weak again this year. San Diego is on their way to be an absolutely horrible team in 2009 with a 100 loss season almost a certainty. The Giants, I think, played beyond themselves last year and won't be as good next year. The Rockies could go either way, but until they can win consistently on the road and not have to take 3+ innings every home game out of their bullpen, they aren't going to be over .500. Arizona was a complete cipher last season. They looked unbeatable for the first two months of the season and should have walked away with the division, but they would just stop playing for a month at a time (twice) and were beaten out by the Dodgers.
This should be an interesting off-season. The Dodgers still have to figure out what to do with the outfield. Assuming that they sign Manny (which I think is going to happen soon) what to do with Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones. They are saddled with Pierre for three more years thanks to Colletti's horrible signing. Worst than that he's a sulker when he's not playing. If they can trade him for anything it would be a good move, even if the McCourt's have to eat some salary. Andruw Jones is in the final year of his contract. It's almost impossible to believe that he could have a worse year than last year. Jones looks to me like someone who had immense natural talent and has never had to work hard at the game. Now that he's older and has to work hard, it doesn't appear that he either knows how or wants to. If he comes to spring training a pound overweight and shows no more interest in working hard than last year they will probably just have to release him. They still have Jason Repko as the fourth outfielder, who I, against all opinion apparently, still like. But, if he isn't going to make the team this year I don't see him spending another year in AAA, he'll probably be traded.
PS: My thanks to ESPN Baseball Analyst Keith Law (http://www.meadowparty.com/blog/) for taking time to have lunch and talk with me while I was in Boston recently. One of the really bright and pleasant people I have had the pleasure of meeting. I wish he was running the Dodgers.