Sitting around trying to recover from the flu I find itâs also time do examine the football picks for the week. I did fairly well last week, I only missed one game outright and missed one other on points when Illinois again failed to appear for their game (see below), so I finished 4-2 and am now 15-6 for the season. There are some very good games this week, and another top 5 team could end up losing.
Game #1: #4 LSU at #18 Georgia. LSU has their biggest game of the season next week against Florida but they have been pretty good about not looking ahead in the past. Their problem this season has been is that while they are undefeated they havenât been that impressive in the process. Georgia is 3-1 but only is +4 in point differential and very nearly lost to Arizona State. Statistically these two teams are nearly identical, with perhaps a slight edge in passing to the Bulldogs. Georgia really has to win this game to stay in contention for the SEC Championship and a BCS bowl, if they lose they might drop out of the Top 25. Georgia is currently favored by 3. SEC teams just beat up on each other (like the Pac 10), home game, really important for Georgia, take the Bulldogs at home.
Game #2: #7 USC at #24 Cal. Amazing how all the noise about how USC seems to lose against an unranked Pac 10 team coming off a big win ended when Cal did the same thing last week. The difference is that USC generally keeps it close (the numbers show that by adding a total of 55 points over the last five years the Trojans would be undefeated with five National Championships) while Cal got blown out by Oregon (who was supposed to be a really good team before they got pummeled by #5 Boise State). It may just be that the reality is that the Pac 10 is really a good conference right now. I would say that the Pac 10 is certainly on par with the SEC and that both conferences have the same problem, they all have to play each other. Cal has one of the top three running backs in the country. USC hasnât been terribly impressive, but Barkley looks like the real thing. The loss of Johnson would be huge for most teams, but the Trojans have about 20 tail backs. USC is currently favored by 5. Cal has yet to prove they can win the âbig gameâ and that hasnât been USCâs problem. Despite the injuries, take the Trojans.
Game #3: #8 Oklahoma at #17 Miami. Since the upset loss to BYU and the loss of Sam Bradford the Sooners have rebounded OK, but rather unimpressively against cupcake teams. Both of these teams have big passing attacks, but Oklahoma can also run effectively, something Miami hasnât really shown yet. Coach Stoops philosophy of not really having the backup QB participate with the first team practices has been covered up by their playing two weak opponents. But this week, against an athletic defense I think his lack of experience will show. Oklahoma is currently favored by 7. I donât think Miami is a fluke, but with Bradford probably not starting (or being ineffectual) I like the Canes in an upset.
Game #4: #22 Michigan at Michigan State. Michigan is rebuilding and this season has won close cliff-hangers. Michigan State is also in flux and has lost three close games in a row. The old saying is that bad teams lose close games. The Spartans arenât a bad team, but they arenât a good team either. State has the advantage in passing, but gives a lot away to Michigan in rushing. The Wolverines are currently favored by 2. Even though this is a rivalry game, I donât think the Spartans have any emotional reserves left after three really bad loses. Take the rebuilding Wolverines.
Game #5: UCLA at Stanford. This is a game that in theory should be against two Top 25 teams. UCLA is 3-0 and Stanford (a preseason dark horse for the Pac 10 title) is 3-1. On paper this game should go to Stanford, they have superior QB and overall offense. The Bruins had a bye week to get a little healthy and to prepare. Coach Neuheisel has done really well with a team that wasnât expected to really compete for another year or so. The Indians, err, the Cardinal (the lamest team name at any level) are currently are favored by 7. UCLA is a surprise team this year, Neuheisel always gets something from his team. Take the Bruins and the points at the Farm.
Bonus Game: Washington at Notre Dame. Both of these teams have been ranked in the Top 25 but probably never should have been. The Fighting Irish put together a schedule that should have given them their best opportunity to get into a BCS game. They may still but it doesnât look that good. They opened by blowing out Nevada, but then lost to Michigan and barely pulled out two games against Michigan State and Purdue (two games they could easily have lost). Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen has turf toe and the news was that he wouldnât be 100% for the rest of the season (turf toe is really painful BTW). The Washington coaches are very familiar with the Irish from their days at USC and Washingtonâs defense is playing very well. The bottom line here is that the Huskies are rebuilding (despite their win against USC) and can play lose and they are very well coached. The bottom line at Notre Dame is that unless Charlie Weiss wins out heâll probably lose his job at the end of the season. But really the two games he must win are this one and on Oct 10th against USC. If he loses against Washington they wonât be playing on January 1st anywhere and if they then lose to USC, Weiss will be collecting a large paycheck for not coaching next year. Notre Dame has not looked impressive at all and are not well coached. The Irish are currently favored by 18 at home. Iâm not sure what team the people who make the odds have been watching, but despite the urgent need for a win thereâs no way. Take the Huskies and the points.
Various Rantings:
We have to wonder how long Ron Zook can either #1: keep his job, or #2 continue to throw Juice Williams out as his QB. All of the pre-season hype was that the Fighting Illini were an up and coming team and a potential contender in the Big 10. So what have they done? With all of spring practice and the summer to prepare they get blown out by a fairly average Missouri team. Last week with a chance to redeem themselves opening their Big 10 schedule against Ohio State. Illinois had the benefit of having a bye-week to prepare and proceeded to get blown out by the Buckeyes (they couldnât even cover 18 points!).
In the Big 10 Iowa could be in the driverâs seat. The Big 10 title could come down to the Nov 14th game at the Horseshoe with Ohio State (which will be in the middle of a tough three games, Penn State before and the Michigan afterwards). Each team could have a conference loss by the time the season is over.
#1 Florida has the week off, which is fortunate because Tim Tebow would certainly not be able to play this week and is still questionable next week against LSU. Tebow is a big, tough, player, but one thing is you never know how someone will respond after an injury like this, especially if they have never been seriously injured. #2 Texas also has the week off before they move into conference play against a horrible Colorado team that will serve as little more than a warm up for the big game against #8 Oklahoma.
#3 Alabama has a walkover game against a Kentucky team that canât really do anything well on either side of the ball. #5 Boise State has maybe their easiest game of the year against UC Davis. Neither #6 Virginia Tech (against Duke), #9 Ohio State (against Indiana) or #10 Cincinnati (against Miami of Ohio) should have any real trouble either this week. I would say that Cincinnati may be the better team in Ohio right now though. Wouldnât Cincinnati vs Boise State in the BCS Championship game be cool? We who hate the BCS system can only dream.
Well, after a lot of upsets, last minute rescues, and a couple of just strange games, this week doesnât appear to be nearly as interesting. So here are my Week Four predictions. Fortunately, I beat the spread on a couple of games last week and was 4-1, so Iâm, 11-4 for the season. There arenât a lot of really compelling games but here goes:
Game #1: #4 Mississippi at South Carolina. Mississippi may have the best QB in the SEC and thus far they have played well, admittedly against inferior teams. Statistically, these teams are fairly even. The Gamecocks may have the advantage in team speed and are coming off a very good offensive game. I think a #4 ranking is a bit of a reach here. Ole Miss is currently favored by 5. There are a lot of upsets on Thursday nights, take the Ole Ball Coach and the points.
Game #2: #9 Miami at #11 Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech nearly lost last week (and should have) to Nebraska. The Hookies QB is completing less than 50% of his passes and other than a fluke 80 yard pass play against Nebraska, this isnât a team that can come back quickly through the air. Miami has a top tier QB who is getting better each week. Tech is currently favored by 3. Miami is a current bandwagon favorite, but theyâll win this game and beat an over-ranked Virginia Tech, take the Canes and the points.
Game #3: South Florida at #18 Florida State. Florida State messed up my predictions last week by running over BYU, but they really caught BYU weakened with a couple of key injuries. South Florida is undefeated and is a very solid team. FSU had fallen out of the top 25 after a loss to Miami and a near loss to Jacksonville State, but then, thanks to the BCS-minded pollsters came back to #18 after beating BYU (who dropped to #19, since they had to make them lower than FSU ï ). I donât buy it. FSU is a badly coached, badly run, undisciplined team. South Florida is a +114 in point differential after 3 games compared to FSU at +32. The Seminoles are currently favored by 15. I think that the real Florida State shows up this week. Take the Bulls and the points.
Game #4: Illinois at #13 Ohio State. Illinois was supposed to be an up and coming team in the Big 10 this year, but really fell flat in their first game against Missouri. Ohio State struggled against Navy, lost to USC and then came back for a very good win against a talented Toledo team (although OSU forced the game to be at Cleveland Browns stadium so it really wasnât a home game for the Red Rockets). Iâm not sold on Prior as a legitimate QB and Tresselâs play calling has to be backed up by a strong defense. The Illini have a senior (although inconsistent) QB and a strong offense, but a young, but athletic defense. Coach Zook knows he needs a big win and he had a bye-week to prepare. The Buckeyes are currently favored by 18. This is a trap game, OSU should win the game, but take the Fighting Illini and the points.
Game #5: Washington State at #12 USC. OK, we can all admit now that USC is rebuilding and we also know why Aaron Corp was beaten out for the starting QB job. USC still has a BCS game in its sights, but they have a tough game against Cal next week. They canât look ahead too much. They have to win (and probably win big), but they also need to get a couple of people healthy. Currently the Trojans are favored by 45. If Barkley and Mays play (and they should at least a little) thatâs about right. Until the pattern is broken, go with USC big in this home game.
Bonus: Iowa at #5 Penn State: Is Penn State really a #5 team? We will begin to find out this week when they play their first Big 10 game against Iowa. The Hawkeyes are also undefeated, but except for a win last week against Arizona they played a weak non-conference schedule. However, as I ranted last week, Penn State hasnât played much more than scrimmage worthy teams (and hasnât traveled away from University Park). In the early non-conference games the Nittany Lions usually run up some 50 and 60 point games, but that hasnât been the case this year. The game is at Beaver Stadium (why do the Nittany Lions have Beaver Stadium as their home?) and Iowa is banged up on offense, but Penn State has injury issues as well. Penn State is currently favored by 10. Upset Alert: by Monday there are no Big 10 teams ranked in the top 10. Take the Iowa Hawkeyes and the points.
Various Rantings:
#1 Florida (against Kentucky) and #2 Texas (against UTEP) pretty much have walkovers this week. Neither game should be all that close. Although I think Tennessee demonstrated some weaknesses in Florida. Florida intimidates teams perhaps a little more on hype than reality. They are a very good team, but I donât see them as unbeatable and Tebow, as good as he is, he is a runner, not a QB and when they finally go up against a front line, physical defense and some linebackers who want to knock Tebow around, Floridaâs offense will struggle. If Florida gets into a 4th quarter behind and needs to pass for big yards, I donât know that Tebow is the guy to get it done. Urban Myer might be a little worried about his team, making a preemptive excuse about the flu epidemic in his team.
Last week both BYU and Utah lost games in which they were favored, and naturally, they fell in the polls. But itâs odd how far they fell (BYU fell from #6 to #19 and Utah fell out of the Top 25 entirely). Itâs like the pollsters and BCS people just canât wait for an excuse to drop them as far as possible to keep them out of their little club. Itâs really a shame that these really good non-BCS teams have to essentially be perfect to get any consideration, while Notre Dame gets a special dispensation and âtraditional powersâ in BCS conferences really get a pass even though they play a weaker schedule. TCU is still undefeated but only ranked #15.
For the Pac 10, Washington continues to win and beats Stanford. Cal beats Oregon to get ready for USC and UCLA stays undefeated with a bye week, hoping to get healthy.
The third week of the college football season has some games that are of a little more interest. The top three teams (#1 Florida against Tennessee; #2 Texas at Texas Tech; and #3 USC at Washington) have games that are at least interesting.
So here are my third week of predictions. Last week in my Five Predictions I was 3-2 and now Iâm 7-3 for the season. Weâll see how I do this week.
Game #1: Nebraska #19 at Virginia Tech #13. This may be the most interesting game of the week. Tom Osborne and his coach Bo Pelini have the Cornhuskers going in the right direction. In their first two games theyâve racked up nearly 1000 yards of offense. Virginia Tech, which seems to be making an effort to take over the âThug Uâ mantle now that Miami has been re-working their program. They looked bad against Alabama and looked good against Marshall. Tech wonât be able to push Nebraska around. Techâs streak of 31 non-conference home wins comes to an end. Virginia Tech is currently favored by 5. Iâm not persuaded by the new Thug U of the ACC. Take Nebraska and the points.
Game #2: Georgia Tech #14 at Miami #20. Georgia Tech is coming off a game that they should have won handily. The squandered a 24-7 lead against Clemson and only a questionable call enabled Tech to pull out the game. Iâm not a fan of the option offense and if they get far behind they donât have the passing game to catch up. Miami looked impressive against Florida State (who admittedly may not be as good as thought). Miami is currently favored by 6. The Hurricanes have a very good QB and have looked good, take the Canes.
Game #3: Michigan State at Notre Dame. The loss last week to Michigan may be the equivalent of Tennesseeâs loss to UCLA last season. That loss marked the beginning of the end for Coach Fulmer. Coach Weiss is on the chopping block now. If Michigan State continues their dominance over the Irish, Weiss will meet the same fate of Fulmer. The Spartans have beaten the Irish at Notre Dame with regularity in the last several years. The Irish put together a seemingly soft schedule with the hope of getting back in the BCS game, theyâre out of the championship game already and another loss will put them out of any BCS game. Notre Dame is currently favored by 7. This is a do or die game for the Irish and they wonât live. Take the Spartans and the points.
Game #4: Texas Tech at Texas #2. Last year in one of the best games of the year (and certainly the best ending) Texas Tech gave the Longhorns their only loss. These two teams can put up lots of points and as usual donât look particularly impressive on defense. Texas is currently favored by 18. The Longhorns may want revenge, but this is too many points, even at home. Take the Red Raiders and the points.
Game #5: Florida State at Brigham Young #7. The Mountain West Conference has three really good teams that could all mess up the BCS system and are showing everyone that they should be in the BCS club. Florida State lost their opener and then nearly lost to 1aa school Jacksonville State. In one of the clearest examples of a coach hanging around far too long, Bobby Bowden is looking at a long (and probably last) season. Currently the Cougars are favored by 8 in their home opener. All is safe here, the Seminoles are really terrible, take BYU +13.
Various Rantings:
When exactly is #5 Penn State required to play a legitimate opponent? And on what basis are they ranked #5? Wins against Akron and Syracuse will be followed up this week with a contest with the Temple Owls. Even if they go undefeated this season they canât possibly be allowed into the BCS championship with this schedule. Besides playing in the overall weak Big 10 Conference, their other remaining non-conference game is against that traditional power the Eastern Illinois Panthers. Hopefully the BCS Voters will repay them by keeping them out of the championship game regardless of their record.
#11 Ohio State go visiting the Red Rockets of Toledo, who, while the Buckeyes were getting their guts ripped out by the Matt Barkley drive, dispatched Colorado Buffalos, running up 58 points. The Buckeyes should win this game, but they canât afford any hangover from last week. This is a very good offensive team in Toledo. OSU is currently favored by 21. Thatâs probably a little too steep.
#1 Florida plays host to Tennessee in the swamp. There is already plenty of bad blood here. New Tennessee coach Lane Kiffin provided plenty of bulletin board red meat for the Gators. The Volunteers were thoroughly out played were caught by surprised by the physical play of UCLA and couldnât keep up. Florida is favored by 30. Either Lane Kiffin is a genius and has this all figured out or the Gators will humiliate Tennessee. I think Kiffin is a genius, but I also think the later scenario is highly probable. Urban Myer runs up the score on regular weeks; this week he will put a brick down on the accelerator stand back and watch the fun. If it's possible to score 100 points he will try.
#3 USC travels to Washington to visit their old offensive coordinator. The Huskies are an improving team and played very well against LSU and got their first in a year last week. But unlike previous years, the Trojans I think are focused and will not play down to their opponents. Barkley may not play a lot or even at all, but USC, favored by 20, will simply wear out Wazzu with superior depth and players and win going away.
I'll try to remember to post this each week for College Football Season through the Bowls. I obviously can't make picks for each game, but I'll usually pick at least five and then rant a bit about some other games.
The second week of college football is typically the most predictable, since very few ranked teams are actually playing each other, most of the games are non-conference, and traditional rivals are either week one or towards the end of the season. This year is no exception. This week there is only one game between ranked teams (USC and Ohio State) and really only one other compelling game (Notre Dame at Michigan). Outside of the first game, the top ten should all win and in the rest of the top 25 there are probably only one or two loses in a couple of trap games.
So here are my second week of predictions. Last week in my Five Predictions I was 4-1 and had the upset by BYU. Weâll see how I do this week.
Game #1: USC #3 at Ohio State #8. After week #1 USC went up one spot in the polls and Ohio State went down, so in the small sample size you have two teams going in different directions. USC was impressive and won against San Jose State (and should have) while Ohio State was not impressive but pulled out a game against Navy. While the Horseshoe will be full, it wonât be as loud, only 10k student tickets sold for the game because there are no students at OSU yet, classes donât start until the 23rd. While I donât think it will be like last year, this game will still be largely decided before halftime. Unless both the O-Line and D-line of OSU plays about 100% better than last week, the Buckeyes wonât score much and wonât be able to stop any of the six starting tailbacks for USC (USCâs #6 back would be the starter at OSU this year). USC typically has trouble with a running QB but their defense is too athletic, fast, and big to have enough trouble to matter. USC is currently favored by 7. Close in the first quarter, finished by halftime; take USC +17.
Game #2: Notre Dame #18 at Michigan. Last year was overall pretty terrible for both these teams. Rich Rodriguez brought a new offense (but no players) and a lot of drama (and the depletion of a large amount of funds from Michigan coffers) and then led the Wolverines to their worst season in recorded history (they were not as good as their record indicates) and he currently has the NCAA checking his practice schedule. Charlie Weiss has perhaps finally realized that the machine-maniacal-arrogance he learned from his former boss in New England doesnât work all that well in college after three really disastrous seasons, with the only bright spot being a win in the Hula Bowl after they were barely bowl eligible. To say both coaches are on the hot seat would be putting it mildly. Both began the seasons with impressive wins against teams that they, in normal years, should beat like they did. But are these teams for real? The Irish are perennially ranked higher than they should be and are again this year. Notre Dame is currently favored by 5. Toss up game, but at the Big House, take Michigan and the points.
Game #3: UCLA at Tennessee. Two rebuilding programs with long proud traditions, a battle of former USC now UCLA Offensive genius Norm Chow against for NFL Defensive genius (and father of the head coach) Monte Kiffen and two very good genius level head coaches in Lane Kiffen (although signing to be the Raider coach may be worth a deduction of a few IQ points) and Rick Neuheisel. UCLA is still very young (only 19 seniors and 59 freshmen on the squad) and very weak at running back and QB is a work in progress, but they did pull the upset last year (and pretty much sealed Coach Fulmerâs doom). However, Lane Kiffen knows UCLA really well and he had more to start with in his rebuilding. Tennessee is currently favored by 9. At Rocky Top, looking for a little revenge, take Tennessee +15.
Game #4: Vanderbilt at LSU #11. In years past this would be a game I would list in the rantings section below. But LSU looked sloppy and unprepared on Saturday night and only late in the game were able to finally put away Washington. The Commodores have put together a good athletic program and their football team was higher ranked than LSU for a good portion of last year. This is a conference game, and Vandy is coming off a good win while LSU lost a practice day traveling after a near upset. Itâs at LSU and that always means something. LSU is currently favored by 15. I smell a trap, take the Vanderbilt Commodores and the points.
Game #5: Clemson at Georgia Tech #15. This is the Thursday game that probably no one outside of Georgia or South Carolina will watch since the NFL seasons starts tomorrow as well with a really good game. The Yellow Jackets won their opener against Jacksonville State in a very unimpressive manner and they are playing consecutive Thursday night games (next week against a resurgent University of Miami). Tech played sloppy and had way too many fumbles. Clemson is superior on both lines and their defense matches well against Techâs passing attack. Look for a back and forth game. Currently Georgia Tech is favored by 5 at home. Upset alert, Clemson +9.
Various Rantings:
Urban Myer of #1 Florida promised to put Tim Tebow under center more this year (it would be embarrassing if Tebow wins another Heisman and a National Championship and still doesnât go until late in the second round of the NFL draft, so Myer has to help a little bit to make him at least appear to be a possible NFL QB), and this week will be a good time to get all that out of the way against Troy, a poor defenseless 1aa school that should be pummeled by about 50 points, but get a nice check for their troubles.
#2 Texas gets their last scrimmage of the year against Wyoming, but at least the Longhorns can maybe see the Tetons while they are there.
Another nice check goes for Florida International to be used by #4 Alabama as tune up fodder.
#9 BYU is too mature to have a letdown and wonât against perpetual bottom dweller the Green Wave of Tulane.
#10 Cal, off their demolition of Maryland, takes the week off by visiting Eastern Washington a 1aa school with a nice view of the mountains and the fans will have a nice view of the Golden Bears scoring about 50 points.
#16 TCU will get to continue to make the Mountain Westâs case to get into the automatic BCS bid system when they travel to ACC (and BCS school) Virginia to face the Cavaliers. Yes, the same Cavaliers who lost to Bill and Mary last week.