The Narnia 3 Blog

College Football Week Nine

This week I hope to recover from a sub-par (why is sub-par bad when in golf it’s really a good thing?) 2-3 week (fortunately Alabama couldn’t cover the points). I’m now 28-15 for the season. There are some very good games this week, and I think another top 5 team will lose this week. BTW, the ranking numbers are now the BCS ranking which came out for the first time last Sunday.

Game #1: #5 USC at #10 Oregon. The Oregon Ducks are probably playing the best football of any of the current Top 10 teams. If it wasn’t for their embarrassing loss in the first game of the season against Boise State, they may very well have been ranked #1 by this time. USC has already had their annual loss and are unbeaten with Matt Barkley at QB. They are playing games closer than it seems they should, but they win. In the last couple of weeks the Trojans have shown a defensive weakness with intermediate passes in the middle of the field. They’ll need to fix that and handle the Ducks rushing, which is statistically better than the Trojans this year. Oregon is actually averaging more points than USC. The Trojans are currently favored by 3. This will certainly be the best game of the week and the most important. The Trojans win big games, take USC.

Game #2: #3 Texas at #14 Oklahoma State. This is a statistically very close game, Texas has slight advantages in passing and rushing, but total points are pretty close. Texas is another Top 5 team that has not looked it in the last month. Playing in Stillwater can be tough. Texas has won the last four meetings and the averages will balance out this week. The Longhorns are currently favored by 9. Texas hasn’t looked good in a few weeks playing weak teams. This is their last really big game before the Big 12 Championship (in which right now they’d face Kansas State!) I think their luck runs out this week. Take the Cowboys and the points as a “home dog.”

Game #3: Georgia at #1 Florida. These are two teams that emphatically do not like each other. Last year Florida Coach Urban Myer called two time outs with less than a minute to play, even though they were winning handily. Although Florida has dominated this series, take away terribly officiating by a now suspended officiating crew and the Bulldogs might be in the top 10. Tim Tebow, concussion or not, has regressed this year in his throwing and decision-making. Georgia is the better passing team and they have a good enough run defense to keep Florida honest. The Gators are currently favored by 19. Florida has not looked impressive for nearly a month, they probably win, but can’t cover nearly 3 touchdowns. Take the Dogs and the points.

Game #4: #12 Penn State at Northwestern. I’m sorry, I just can’t get too excited about any of the top three teams in the Big 10. Penn State just hasn’t played anyone yet (except their loss to Iowa) that’s a very good team. Northwestern has become a decent team and will probably go to a bowl game again this year. They have a very good passing game and the conference’s best QB and are playing at Evanston (does Penn State have some exemption against traveling? They only have 4 road games all season.). The Lions are currently favored by 15. The “Home Dog” rule applies here. The Wildcats are a good passing team, they may lose, but Penn State can’t cover this many points. Take Northwestern at home and the points.

Game #5: #21 West Virginia at South Florida. South Florida is having their annual melt down. They play great early and win some big games, move into the Top 25 and then proceed to lose to teams they really shouldn’t. This is simply a focus issue and the blame for that lays more at the feet of the coaching staff than the players. West Virginia has needed big rallies late to win their last two games. Weather will be a factor. Temps should be in the 80’s at game time with high humidity at Raymond James Stadium. I’ve heard very good pro players say they’d rather play in Green Bay in the winter than Florida in the fall. The Mountaineers are currently favored by 3. Take the Bulls at home and the points in the Friday night game.

Various Rantings:

My boss recently commented to me that I’m always down on his Ohio State Buckeyes. I replied that I wasn’t really, what I’m down on is the Big 10 Conference in general. I doubt right now that they are any better than about the 5th or 6th best conference in the nation and there is no sign that they are getting any better any time soon. I would say that even the non-BCS Mountain West Conference lined up top to bottom would probably win a series with the Big 10 right now). All in all, Ohio State has been the best team in the Big 10 for probably the last 10 years and the only Big 10 team to win more than one National Championship (2002, and their shared title in 1970), since 1970. Michigan did have a highly disputed shared title with Nebraska in 1997 and Penn State wasn’t in the Big 10 when they won their two titles in 1982 and 1986. But Ohio State is rebuilding and has QB and O-line issues (I heard Kirk Herbstreit, former OSU QB recently call the O-Line fat, slow and unathletic, he also said Pryor's mechanics and footwork were a mess); Penn State simply refuses to play a decent non-conference schedule and is in a state of arrested development until Joe Paterno retires; Iowa is undefeated, but doing it with smoke and mirrors (they are traditionally just an average team). Michigan, normally one of the three powers, is rebuilding with a new system but their new coach is in trouble with the NCAA and the alumni (and former coach Lloyd Carr who has a chance to become the new AD at Michigan, doesn’t like him either). The other teams are average (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan State) to simply terrible (Purdue, Indiana and especially the train wreck of Illinois). In the Conference's big Bowl Game, the Rose Bowl, the Big 10 team hasn’t won since 2000, and their representative has been plowed under the last three seasons in games that were never close.

So, am I just a Big 10 hater, not really. College football is much, much better, when the Big 10 Conference is good and they haven’t been for a while. They are not recruiting all that well. Top skill players from high school would rather be a backups for a while at Florida, Texas, USC and a few other schools than go to the Big 10. Tradition doesn’t recruit as well in college football as it used to and the top teams need in the Big 10 need to really look at their programs and see why their conference is falling behind.

One thing. I know the early BCS rankings are largely meaningless, but how in the world is even an undefeated Iowa team ranked ahead of USC (or even Cincinnati, or Boise State, or TCU). Iowa barely escaped Michigan State last week and only has a point differential of +71, the lowest by far of any Top 10 team.

College Football Week Eight

This is a week filled with trap games and one game the BCS people are watching very closely. Last week only Nebraska let me down in the bonus pick so I finished with a very good 5-1. I’m now 26-12 for the season. There are some very good games this week, and I think another top 5 team will lose this week. BTW, the ranking numbers are now the BCS ranking which came out for the first time last Sunday.

Game #1: #8 TCU at #16 Brigham Young. This is the BCS Watch Game of the Week. Only one non-BCS Conference School is assured of getting into the BCS game picture. Right now Boise State looks to have another unbeaten season coming up. The BCS folks would like, I think, the “BCS Breaker” to be anyone other than Boise State. BYU laid an egg against a now obviously bad Florida State team and lost out on the chance to be undefeated going into this game (and probably still ranked in the top 10). Both of these teams can put up lots of points. This is a classic Mountain West match up and a classic rushing team (TCU) against a traditionally powerful passing team (BYU). But this year the Cougars have a now healthy front line running back as well. I doubt the Cougars will lose very important home games in one season. The Horned Frogs are currently favored by 3. The BCS does not get their wish. Take the Cougars as a “home dog” and the points.

Game #2: #6 Iowa at Michigan State. Iowa is a mysterious team. They nearly lose to Northern Iowa and barely beat Arkansas State. But, they beat Penn State, Michigan (barely) and came back to beat Wisconsin. Their schedule looks soft enough for them to run the table. They do play Ohio State and also have a trap game in two weeks against a better than their record Northwestern team. Michigan State has just been trampled this season is is 4–3. But, they are better than Iowa in all the offensive categories. This game is currently a push, with Michigan State being a slight computer favorite at home. The Hawkeyes have never gone 7-0 and if as a supposed #6 team they can’t even be favored against a 4-3 conference opponent what does that tell you? It tells me the streak comes to an end and by Sunday even contractual obligations will not allow a Big 10 team to be in the top 10.

Game #3: #13 Penn State at Michigan. Michigan is a halts and starts team that is improving, Penn State is a team that has built its records by playing Sister’s of Mercy and their Associated Colleges (they really have the softest schedule imaginable). Their only game against an above average team was a loss to Iowa. Penn State’s offense is slow and unathletic and their defense is good, but on the field too long every game. Here’s the other big Penn State problem, they kick field goals and don’t score touchdowns. They are ahead of Michigan in both passing and rushing offense, but behind at the pay window, the Wolverines average 8 more points per game than Penn State. The Nittney Lions are currently favored by 7. As always take the “home dog” and the points, Wolverines in a good game.

Game #4: Oregon State at #7 USC. Twice in the last three years lowly Oregon State has been the vehicle to upset USC’s national championship aspirations. While the Trojans are coming off a big, emotional road win and have a huge road game next week at Oregon (which will decide the Pac 10 Championship and determine if USC can make it to the National Championship game) this could be a trap game. On paper this isn’t even close, the Beavers have nothing at any level to hang their hats on for this game, except that they have upset better Trojan teams in the past. USC is simply superior at every position in all three parts of the game. The Trojans are currently favored by 21. This is an exception to the “Home Dog” rule of thumb. The Trojans have a little revenge on their minds and will not fall into this trap game, take the Men of Troy.

Game #5: Tennessee at #2 Alabama. Alabama is another SEC that often looks better than it is because of their weak scheduling (Florida International, North Texas and a really late season scrimmage against Chattanooga???). Their defense is really, really good, which is the only reason they’ve won their last two games. Because their offense has looked terrible, I have a feeling this team is a little overly hyped for no real reason beyond their star running back Mark Ingram, against whom Monte Kiffen should have a really nice scheme. Alabama is currently favored by 14. This is a classic trap game for the Tide before a bye-week and then the big game against LSU. Lane Kiffen is doing a better job with the Vols than people think and the weekly competition is starting to pay off. Upset of the week, take the Volunteers of Rocky Top and the points.

Various Rantings:

The SEC has suspended the entire officiating crew that handled (or mangled) the LSU – Georgia two weeks ago with a series of questionable calls, including one that we commented on last week that cost Georgia its season. The same crew handled the Florida – Arkansas games last week and had probably even a worse day of officiating (it’s that’s possible). A personal foul was called on Arkansas that the Commissioner of the SEC said had “no video evidence to support the call.” This call, in all probability changed the outcome as Florida had been losing at the time (very late in the game) and allowed them to go ahead. This crew will not work together again until November 14th when they apparently will be allowed to victimize another school and affect the National Championship race.

Even though I’m a west coast guy, I have always thought that the Pac 10 has the absolute worst officials for football of any conference. That was reinforced this last week with the USC – Notre Dame game. In what was an apparent effort to demonstrate that this crew would not favor USC they went overboard and nearly gave the game to the Irish. A simply horrible “celebration” penalty was called on a sack when the USC lineman did nothing more that flex his biceps. He didn’t taunt, he did run or gesture to the fans, he didn’t even leave his place on the field. But that penalty turned a third down sack for a loss into a first down and kept a scoring drive alive. That wasn’t the only really questionable call (although on TV with the Notre Dame paid announcers you would have never know it). The game was never close and remove the bad penalties and the one tipped interception and this was another USC by 21 points.

Ohio State QB Terrell Pryor is playing badly, really badly. People are all over Buckeye coach Jim Tressel to bench him or something. But what can Tressel do? He has no other legitimate QB on the team (he only has a couple of JC transfers), Pryor for all his warts probably give OSU the best chance to win. Tressel has probably made two mistakes in this situation: (1) he has gotten away from his foundational offensive philosophy (which by the way, has won him a national championship and produced a Heisman winning QB), putting too much strain on his defense and weak special teams; (2) but his biggest problem is that he didn’t recruit a top 10 high school QB in the last two years to push Pryor in practice (and give him options if Pryor faltered). Now he’s really stuck and all the noise on this is going to make it harder for him to recruit QB’s, especially those who want to play in the NFL someday. Ohio State hasn’t become a bad program, but turning it around is going to take some time, probably two years. This is, at best, a slightly above average team who could easily lose three more games this season (they still play Iowa, Michigan, and Penn State), but they lost all of their senior leadership on offense from last season, their offensive line is rebuilding, their QB is an erratic sophomore with poor throwing mechanics, and their defense, while solid, is on the field way too much. While Pryor may blossom, right now he does not project to an starting NFL QB. Maybe a wildcat guy or probably better a wide receiver.

The Christian Life is Like... Rushing with the Football

We often hear a lot about what the Christian life is analogous too. In Scripture it's compared to a race (Heb 12:1), which has led some to compare the Christian life to a running event, often either a sprint or marathon. We know the Christian life is not a 100 meter dash, quick acceleration and then over in less than 10 seconds. I don't even really think the idea of a marathon works all that well, running uninterrupted on flat ground for about three plus hours to cover the 26 miles and some extra yards. I think the real Christian life is more comparable to football, of course this time of year I find a lot of things comparable to football, but here's what I mean. The greatest rusher in the history of the National Football League in terms of total yards was Emmitt Smith. In his career he carried the ball 4409 times and gained 18,335 yards. That's roughly a race of 10.5 miles (or less than half a marathon). Here's the thing though. When you look at his average per carry, every time he carried the ball, he went forward 4.1 yards (about 13 feet). At that point, on average, a number of very large opponents would tackle him with great vigor and throw him to the ground. In his long career this went on over 4,000 times. Even at my advancing age of 53, I'm pretty confident that if I committed myself to training for a few months I could soon reach a point where I could run 10.5 miles without stopping, but I think if a couple of NFL linemen, linebackers, of even defense backs tackled me once I’d pretty much be done for quite a while. 4,000+ times would be unthinkable. The key for any football player is that you get up after being tackled and do it again, and again. There are great times of course, when the tacklers miss you and you rush for 10, 20, 30, 50 yards and score a touchdown without being tackled. Those are great days, all is smiles and cheers and congratulations. There are also those times, when the blockers miss their assignment and you are thrown for a loss, not even getting back to the original line of scrimmage. I think the Christian life is much more like football. The opponent is on the field, "seeking whom he may devour" (1 Pet 5:8) and we are living, not 10 seconds of sprinting, nor even a few hours of running, but rather a lifetime of rushing. There are good days of victory and bad days of loss. But Paul tells us, we can do all things through Him who strengthens us (Phil 4:13), and through His power we carry on, ever knowing that there are tacklers coming for us: and they will get us about every 13 feet. But by His grace and in His power, seeing that He has given us all things pertaining to life and godliness (1 Pet 1:3) we persevere and move forward.

College Football Week Seven

Coming up on the half way mark of the college football season and now we enter conference play in earnest. There will be several big games every week now until conference championship games. Last week I went 3-2, as LSU failed to cover but Ohio State did (which still surprises me, Wisconsin did not play well)t in OT, so I finished 3-3 and am now 21-11 for the season. There are some really, really good game this week and the National Championship game participants could look to this week as a deciding factor.

Game #1: #6 USC at #25 Notre Dame. So far this season the Trojans have only given up 43 points in five games and are +101 points in differential; they should be undefeated except for their annual lapse against a Pac 10 team. The Irish are only a +44 points in differential and have given up 119 points. Notre Dame’s defense is simply terrible, especially on the edges and USC gets their #1 wide receiver and main deep threat back this week (plus the playbook is expanding for the freshman QB). The Irish have had the same defensive problem for a few years: slow, terrible pass defenders, and horrific tackling. Don’t look for the Trojans to simply run straight ahead as Washington did (that’s really the only solid point of the Irish defense). Notre Dame is 4-1, but probably the weakest 4-1 possible and they could easily have been 1-4 at this point. How they magically got into the Top 25 on a bye week speaks to probably the occasional manipulation of the polls to make the match up a little better. USC is currently favored by 10. Don’t worry about the points here, take the Trojans to drive another nail in the Charlie Weiss retirement package.

Game #2: #8 Cincinnati at #21 South Florida. This should be a really good game against two undefeated teams. History has been against the Bulls, who tend to start fast and then have trouble sustaining their momentum. This is as high as Cincinnati ever been ranked and they look like the real thing, they are currently #3 in the nation in scoring. The glaring difference between the two teams is the 100 yard per game in passing advantage and their QB Tony Pike is an under the radar Heisman candidate. Weather could be a factor with some rain and game time temps in the 80’s. The Bearcats are currently favored by 4. Cincinnati may well end up undefeated this season and if USC isn’t in the BCS Championship game then we’re pulling for Boise State and Cincinnati. This should be a very good game, but take the Bearcats.

Game #3: #22 South Carolina at #2 Alabama. By virtue of mainly a lackluster performance by Texas rather than their own performance, the Tide moved up in the polls to #2. South Carolina and the Ole Ball Coach have been up and down. Some weeks they look good and some weeks they don’t. They have a better defense than offense, but they can score. While it appears that Alabama should move undefeated to the SEC Championship game, this could be a trap game. Alabama is currently favored by 17. I’d like to see an upset, but don’t see a home let down by a Nick Saban coached team. The Tide wins, but won’t cover, take the Gamecocks and the points.

Game #4: #20 Oklahoma at #3 Texas. This is the annual rivalry game. These teams both have Heisman QB’s, both teams are very even (although the Sooners are not scoring as much in comparison to their offensive stats). The Sooners have the pressure. They have to win to be in the BCS discussion. If they lose they are not playing on a January 1st Bowl game, despite their fan base. They also have the better defense. Texas did not look good last week and in a couple of games they have played badly in the first half. The Longhorns are currently favored by 7. This is always a close game and Texas played badly last week, take the Sooners and the points.

Game #5: #4 Virgina Tech at #19 Georgia Tech. On paper this looks like another win for Virginia Tech, they have the advantage in scoring and overall defense. But, they are not strong against the run, which is pretty much the strength of the offense of Georgia Tech. VT struggled a lot against the power running game of Nebraska and nearly lost the game. Georgia Tech’s triple option is difficult to defend if you only see it once a year. If VT were coming off a bye week and had more time to prepare I might go with them, but they aren’t and they are traveling (and played badly in their only other road game this season against Duke). The Hookies are favored by 3. I’m not convinced by VT, take the Rambling Wreck and the points.

Bonus Pick Texas Tech at #15 Nebraska. We like the continually improving Nebraska Cornhuskers. They are coming off a very good win against Missouri where they showed that they can explode on offense. Their defense if top 10 and they should handle Red Raiders passing attack (especially with their rush). Nebraska’s Mr. Suh (you always call a 6-4 300lbs d-lineman who can run faster than most running backs “Mr.”) should get Heisman consideration, he’s the most impressive pass rusher and run defender I’ve seen in a long time. Tech can only pass, they are averaging only 78 yards per game rushing and they have a really porous defense. The Huskers are favored by 11. Nebraska is back in the Big 12 (I would not be surprised if they won the Big 12 Championship) and will be back in the national discussion by next year. Take the Huskers.

Various Rantings:

In the Top 10, #5 Boise State has Tulsa and should remain undefeated. LSU has a bye after a rather embarrassing loss at Florida; embarrassing in that they could score a single touchdown. #7 Ohio State is fine over Purdue; #9 Miami should handle UCF easily.

The BCS rankings come out after this week, some tinkering has already been seen, moving a one defeat Virginia Tech ahead of the undefeated Boise State, the almost magical moving of Notre Dame into the top 25 after their bye week (that shouldn’t last after this week). The undefeated Cincinnati finally moved slightly ahead of Ohio State. Undefeated TCU, which is a very good team, is still not in the top 10, stuck at #12. BYU, which had gotten to #6 lost a game (to a top 10 team) and nearly dropped out of the Top 25 and now has only moved up to #18. The BCS continues to be a rigged and manipulated way to determine the teams in the National Championship game. It’s the system that exists, but it needs to be changed. The absolutely worthless Coaches Poll needs to be dropped. Coaches have no time to evaluate teams other than their next opponent. I imagine most, if not all, of the picks in the coaches poll are done by either (1) the school’s Sports Information Director, (2) some grad assistant, (3) a member of the coaches family, or (4) throwing darts.

College Football Week Six

Coming up on the half way mark of the college football season and now we enter conference play in earnest. There will be several big games every week now until conference championship games. Last week was a mixed bag. A terrible call (that the SEC now says should not have been called, see below) cost Georgia a game and Michigan came up short in OT, so I finished 3-3 and am now 18-9 for the season. There are some very good games this week, and another top 5 team will lose this week.

Game #1: #21 Nebraska at #24 Missouri. Thursday night games have been really good this year and this will be one of the best. The Huskers are re-establishing themselves as a solid Big 12 power and with a win would solidify their standing as a top 25 team again. Nebraska is ranked #1 in scoring defense and 19th in offense. They really should be undefeated with fluky loss to Virginia Tech. Missouri is undefeated and has impressive offensive numbers but it’s largely a mirage. The beat a horrible Illinois team and followed that with wins against Bowling Green (which played them tough for a while), Furman (no comment) and Nevada (who also showed the weaknesses in the Tigers defense). Look for torrential rain throughout the game which favors the defense and power running team. Nebraska is currently favored by 3. The Huskers are the real thing, go with Nebraska.

Game #2: #1 Florida at #4 LSU. The big story here is that Tim Tebow will be a game time decision as to whether he’ll start or not. Since as late as last weekend he wasn’t even allowed to read, watch TV or look at game film, I really doubt it is a good idea for him to play. He’s done two days of light non-contact practice and still isn’t medically cleared to play. In the big picture if they lost without Tebow Florida probably only falls to #5 or #6 (depending on Alabama) and is still in the National Championship picture. But if he plays and gets his bell rung again, he’s probably lost for the season. LSU was lucky to get a win last week at Georgia, but they are at home this week. Florida is currently favored by 7. This is a tough game to call, but even if Tebow plays (which would be a mistake) he’s not a factor and may be a hindrance. Take the Tigers in Death Valley on Saturday night and the points.

Game #3: #3 Alabama at #20 Mississippi. The Tide is a sleeper team for the national championship. It’s pretty clear that three SEC teams can’t/won’t be in the top five by the end of the season. They look to be the odds on favorite to play Florida in the SEC championship game. Ole Miss’ season has been erratic and they clearly were not as good as the pre-season pollsters thought, but this is still a dangerous team at home. Alabama nearly 100 yard advantage int toel offense per game, but that’s only translating into an 8 point per game advantage over Mississippi. While they have an advantage in passing yards, Ole Miss has better receivers and more passing touchdowns. Alabama is currently favored by 7. Even though as a USC fan I need Alabama to lose, I don’t think they do. Take the Tide in a very good and close game.

Game #4: Wisconsin at #9 Ohio State. Wisconsin inexplicably is not in the top 25 despite being 5-0. The come in to the Horseshoe with an advantage (though not huge) in all the offensive categories. Ohio State has probably the best defense in the Big 10 and one of the better in college football. They have held teams in the last few weeks to under 50 yards in rushing. But OSU is living on the edge, if they have a defensive lapse or special teams mistake and get behind by a couple of scores, their offense could have trouble coming back against a front line defense. The Buckeyes are currently favored by 16. After the Badgers, OSU has a couple of easy games and then they end with three very tough games to end the season. The Badgers are undefeated and an upcoming team in the Big 10. The Buckeyes should win, but I don’t think they can cover 16 points, take Wisconsin and the points.

Game #5: #13 Oregon at UCLA. Coach Neuheisel has gotten a lot from a team that is really banged up and is still probably two years from really competing in the Pac 10. Oregon is now ranked where they were before the opening day Boise State fiasco. The Ducks have really beaten up on their last couple of opponents and are probably the only team left between USC and their next Pac 10 Championship (when they meet in four weeks). This game at Pasadena will be a big test of focus for Oregon (who should stick with their 1960’s uniforms). The Ducks are currently prohibitive favorites (this means there are no odds and only someone who wanted to throw away money would take UCLA and no one would take the chance on the upset). UCLA will make this a closer game than some think, but go with the Ducks.


Various Rantings:

In a follow up to our note last week, “We have to wonder how long Ron Zook can either #1: keep his job, or #2 continue to throw Juice Williams out as his QB.” Ron Zook has decided to take option #2. Williams has never been consistent and probably doesn’t even translate to a NFL QB in the draft and he’s been just terrible this year.

The biggest joke in football (college and pro) is the excessive celebration penalty. An SEC official called an “excessive celebration” penalty against Georgia after they had scored a go ahead touchdown with about 90 seconds left in the game. The idea that college players can restrain themselves from an emotional outburst after doing something significant is just silly, it’s contrary to human nature (and normalcy). The penalty should be for taunting, for acting in an unsportsmanlike manner, I have no problem with that. But look what happened to Georgia. Because of the penalty they kickoff 15 yards further back and give LSU great field position, allowing them to score and win the game. Georgia now drops out of the top 25 (which means they will get fewer prime time TV games and have less revenue), they now have no chance of winning the SEC Championship or going to a BCS game, which is a loss of perhaps $5-10 million to the school. The SEC came out and said that the penalty should not have been called, which is little consolation to the losing team.