The important part of any game is the end, and last week I was again 4-1 (12-3 in the last three weeks) so now for the year and now I’m 41-22. Only Stanford let me down (although they will drive the final nail in the tenure of Charlie Weiss this week). The next two weeks are largely the classic rivalry games, a couple are better than some and I think there is big upset in the mix, with three classic trap games on tap. The Big 10 season is over now (see last weeks’ ranting on how the Big 10 needs to move into the 21st Century) and with two more weeks and conference championship games there are a couple of those teams that could drop in the rankings. One reader of these little notes reminded me that it wasn’t all that long ago that the Big 10 Conference would not allow any bowl appearances for teams except the conference winner in the Rose Bowl.
In a couple of the rivalry games two of the top teams should win. #3 Texas plays at Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night and are favored by 21. This is only a very average A&M team not playing against strong competition. #1 Florida hosts the woeful Florida State Seminoles on Saturday and are currently favored by 25. But these are rivalry games and those are a lot of points, especially the second game. What about #2 Alabama? Read on.
Game #1: #21 Utah at #19 BYU. This is the only game between two Top 25 teams (BTW the non-BCS Mountain West Conference has three teams in the Top 25). This is another rush (Utah) vs pass (BYU) game. Max Hall the senior QB for the Cougars is now their all time winning QB (quite a feat considering whose played that position in Provo) and they have a very good running back. BYU was embarrassed last year by the Utes and the seniors want to go out on a winning note, especially at home. The Cougars are currently favored by 8. This is always a very good game, but stick with the Cougars at home.
Game #2: #2 Alabama at Auburn. The annual Iron Bowl is a really bitter rivalry game. These are two programs who really don’t like each other and traditionally the underdog has relished in spoiling the favored teams national stature. This year is no exception. The Tide dispatched Chattanooga last week in what was little more than a glorified scrimmage, but this is an Auburn team that is equal to Alabama in rushing and a much better passing team. The Tide’s offense has failed to impress most of this season and at 7-3 the Tigers probably will play in a good bowl game. Alabama plays in the SEC Championship game no matter what against Florida, but if they get behind they don’t have the offense to catch up without “official” assistance. The Tide are favored at home by 10. Upset Alert, Big Time Trap Game! Take the home dog Tigers and the points.
Game #3: Georgia at #7 Georgia Tech. This is one of the better rivalry games over the years, the “clean, old-fashioned hate” game. This is the classic rush (Georgia Tech) vs. pass (Georgia) game, and Georgia holds a near 9 point per game scoring average advantage. If the Bulldogs get a lead and forces Tech to throw, the Yellow Jackets could be in trouble (their only loss was to a passing Miami team and they nearly lost to another pass first team in Wake Forest). Tech is going to the ACC championship game regardless of the outcome and to a BCS game if they can beat Clemson. The Bulldogs have underachieved this year and tend to play down to their competition, which really caught up with them last week against a really weak Kentucky team (a horribly embarrassing loss). There is no question that Coach Reicht is on the hot seat and a rivalry win would give him an easier off-season and help recruiting. The Yellow Jackets are currently favored by 8, a surprisingly low number. This is a classic trap game, take the Bulldogs and the points with the Wreck looking too far ahead and Georgia playing to save their coach’s job.
Game #4: UCLA at #20 USC. The Trojans have played horrible, uncharacteristically bad defense the last three game giving up more points than they did all last season (although, again, pretty much all of last year’s defensive team are starting in the NFL now). The Bruins are going in the right direction and have won some games they really were not expected to win and have played tough. They remain really banged up and they are a very young team. On paper all the stats belong to USC. Matt Barkley, the freshman QB has been pretty average or worse the last three weeks. But, he’s also won the previous two big rivalry games (Ohio State and Notre Dame). The Trojans had a bye week to get healthy and ready, and Pete Carroll is traditionally undefeatable after a bye week. The Bruins are bowl eligible, but not really assured of a bowl game and this is their last game of the season. The Trojans have two game and need to win both. The Trojans are currently favored by 13. Remarkably USC is still viewed as a BCS at large invitee (because they travel really well and will bring in lots of fans, and, of course, the BCS is about money). But the Trojans have to win out. They will and the Bruins will have to wait another year.
Game #5: #9 Pittsburgh at West Virginia. The “Back Yard Brawl” traditionally has been all West Virginia until 2 years ago, when a terrible Pitt team beat a highly ranked West Virginia team at Morgantown. The Mountaineers have not been a good team this year and probably should have lost two other games. Pitt is playing very well. The teams are statistically even, except Pitt has an advantage in points scored, mainly because West Virginia kicks too many field goals. The Mountaineers are currently marginal favorites at home (this means it’s a toss up). This is another trap game, the Panthers should win, but I think they’re looking ahead to next week with Cincinnati, which will be too bad. Take West Virginia.
Various Rantings:
Anyone who knows me knows that I think the BCS system is one part idiocy and two parts racketeering that was created solely to make certain that the Holiday Bowl never decides that National Championship again and that teams like BYU aren’t ever allowed to spoil the money flow to the “traditional powers.” The calls for massive reform or elimination of the BCS system have even gotten close to Congressional hearings. Things must be heating up, because the BCS just started a new website: www.playoffproblem.com a website devoted to debunking each and every College football playoff scheme that is devised (ignoring the fact that Div 2, 3 and NAIA have had very good playoff systems for football for decades). The BCS has now entered into the “Yeah our system is bad, but it’s a lot better than any of your ideas” brand of defense. This is really a sign of desperation and hopefully of the BCS’ soon demise.
A very wealthy alum and donor to Michigan said he thought Coach Rodriguez “probably would be back” next season and since he’s given over $100 million to the school over the years that’s probably a good sign he’ll be back, although the school president would only commit to the statement, “he’s the head football coach.” But the same donor also said, “he better win next year.” Rodriguez will be in his third year and his recruits to the program are now pretty much the bulk of his players. So it looks like he’ll get one more year to turn things around, but that’s likely all. And, if the NCAA investigation goes south much more he could still be gone. The logs that are supposed to be kept recording players work out and practice times were non-existent and even if nothing else comes out the program is probably going to get more than a slap on the wrist.
Last week we were once again 4-1 so now for the year and now I’m 37-21. The only game we missed was another USC loss. I’m obviously a big USC fan and am disappointed by the season, but when you lose roughly 11 starters, the two main coordinators and have a QB leave for the NFL, that’s hard for any program to absorb. Expectations were probably too high for the Trojans this year, and they were killed by some key (and often lingering) injuries. But they had some very good wins and they also have once again recruited very well. The season is winding down and the next couple of weeks should be little more than formalities, which the exception of a couple of conference championship games. The top three teams are taking the week off (in a manner of speaking) as #1 Florida plays Florida International (The Gators are favored by 45 points); #2 Alabama plays Chattanooga (the Tide is a prohibitive favorite, this means in terms of wagering, Florida International has a better chance of winning than Chattanooga does), and #3 Texas does play a conference game against the train-wreck program of Kansas (The Longhorns are only favored by 28). Good games are a little scarce, but here goes.
Game #1: #10 Ohio State at Michigan. Two teams going in exact opposite directions will help bring the Big 10 season to a close. Ohio State, at one point had fans asking for Coach Tressel’s head and about the same time Michigan looked like the best team in the Big 10. Things turned around quickly. Tressel is off to his first Rose Bowl and Rich Rodriguez will like soon be out of a job. His only realistic hope of not being fired is to pull off a big upset at the Big House. Losing would normally be bad enough, but everyone recognized that the Wolverine cupboard was pretty bare when he arrived. But now NCAA investigators are uncovering a little more (and it’s not like Rodriguez has been scandal free in the past) and the combination of losing and the program being under investigation is probably more than the Michigan AD and President will allow. Between the sidelines, these teams are a statistical dead heat. OSU’s offense is still not sustaining drives long enough to keep the defense fresh and Pryor is still a work in progress with amazingly bad mechanics. The Buckeyes are currently favored by 12. There is a lot on the line here, mainly for Michigan. Ohio State is going to the Rose Bowl but Michigan has to win just to be bowl eligible. This is still one of the biggest rivalry games in college football. The Buckeyes plow the Wolverines under in Rich Rodriguez’s last game at Michigan.
Game #2: #25 Cal at #17 Stanford. The annual rivalry game of the Bay area sees perhaps the hottest and most surprising team ranked ahead of a team that earlier in the year was talked about as a National Champion. The only game between this week between two Top 25 teams. Both are coming off wins (Stanford’s was the biggest against USC). Stanford can still get to the Rose Bowl if Oregon (along with Oregon State and Arizona) lose in the next couple of weeks. But both of these teams will be going to Bowl Games. Stanford has a huge advantage in rushing and with Cal’s main offensive weapon, Javhid Best is still recovering from a concussion. The Cardinal are favored at home by 8. Stanford is hot and at home, take the Cardinal.
Game #3: Kansas State at Nebraska. At this point it looks like the winner of the Big 12 North will be unranked. The Big 12 Conference overall has been a big disappointment this year and the North even more so. This is a tough game (I have friends who are fans of each school and my daughter has been accepted to attend K-State). This is a game where is each team plays their very best game, you would go with Nebraska, mainly because of their defense. But the problem is that neither team has consistently played their best for any long stretch. The stats are relatively even with NU having a slight advantage in passing and K-State having an advantage in rushing. If Nebraska wins they go to the Big 12 Championship game (unless somehow they lose next week to Colorado). The Huskers probably have the best chance of beating Texas of any team in the North. The Huskers are currently favored by 17. I agree, take the Huskers at home.
Game #4: UConn at Notre Dame. On the schedule this probably looked like an easy W for the Irish back in the summer. Well, the season hasn’t gone to well for Notre Dame and the Weiss era is just about over. In reality this is a team that is much worse than their record. They could easily have lost three or four of their other games. No one will confirm that Weiss will be back next year (a sure sign that he won’t). Notre Dame has a huge advantage in passing, but UConn is the superior rushing team (does this remind anyone of Navy?). Alumni will be lining up to contribute to the buyout for Weiss’ contract. He hasn’t been a good college coach, he hasn’t recruited well and he hasn’t won big games and now isn’t winning against inferior teams. The Irish are currently favored by only 8 at home (against a team that is only 4-5!). This is a Notre Dame team in complete disarray, take the Huskies and the points.
Game #5: #11 Oregon at Arizona. A couple of weeks ago Oregon was the hottest team in college football, until they went to Stanford and lost. However, the Pac 10 Championship is a fairly simple equation, the Ducks beat Arizona and they can start preparing for the Rose Bowl. But Arizona is a very good team that will also go to a bowl game (they still must play Arizona State and USC though) and if they win out, they go to the Rose Bowl. This is another passing (Arizona) vs rushing (Oregon) team. The Ducks are currently favored by 7. In the end I think the Ducks just have too much firepower for the Wildcats and they go to Pasadena.
Various Rantings:
I have officially committed to obtaining and wearing an Ohio State tie to work should they manage to beat whoever they play in the Rose Bowl. I don’t think they can beat any of the top Pac 10 teams and one reason has nothing to do with their team or coaching. The fault lies with the Conference. The Big 10 oddly finishes their season this week, a full two weeks (and in some cases three) before any of their other major conferences. This means that at Rose Bowl time the Buckeyes have nearly a month more non-game prep time than any of their opponents. That may not sound like much, but that is really problematic in keeping a team sharp, focused, and more importantly, in game shape. The Big 10 really needs to look at their antiquated scheduling and probably needs to add another team and add a Conference championship game (BTW almost all of the coaches want these changes). Outside of the champion the idle teams of the Big 10 can easily drop in the rankings after their season is over and other teams impress the pollsters and computers. The coaches, on the other hand, need to really stiffen up their non-conference games if they want to move up in the conference rankings.
On the other coast, the Pac 10 probably needs to do the same thing. Right now they are the only conference where each team plays every team within the conference. That’s a good scheme, but they probably should go to a 12 team conference and add a championship game as well. There are some good teams out there, Boise State, Utah, BYU, even perhaps Nevada. The other thing the Pac 10 needs is their own TV network or major contract (they’re the only conference that ESPN doesn’t have a deal with).
Last week we had a nice comeback with the picks going 4-1 (and laughing all the way as Navy beat Notre Dame) so now for the year and now I’m 33-20. The games are getting interesting now and several of these games will largely decide who goes to the major bowl games. The top three teams (Florida vs South Carolina; Alabama vs Mississippi State; and Texas vs. Baylor) on paper should be three more wins. But all of these teams have shown a tendency to play down to their opposition, and don’t under-estimate the Old Ball Coach with a very good defensive team at home against his old school. The other team that could be upset (and perhaps the most likely) is Alabama traveling to Davis Wade Stadium. The chances of one of these iffy teams losing is pretty good and coupled with wins by Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State, would further complicate the BCS system and put their computers into over drive to keep “the right” teams in the championship game.
Game #1: #10 Iowa at #11 Ohio State. Probably the worst 8-0 team in history finally lost last week as Iowa was defeated by (a very under-rated by the way) Northwestern Wildcats. In the process the Hawkeyes lost their starting QB for the season. This was is a team that is so terribly over-rated it’s simply laughable (if they went to the Rose Bowl, they would open as probably 25 point underdogs to any of the Top Pac 10 teams). They have been behind in the second half in all but one game. Now they travel to the Horseshoe with a new QB who has had only one week (which in college is about 15 hours) of practice. OSU’s offense looked very good last week against Penn State. Offense has been the Buckeyes problem all year, not the fact they are not scoring a lot, but way too many “3 and outs” have been putting the defense on the field way too long in games and wearing them out at the end (i.e. the USC game). If they continue to cut down on the “three downs and a punt” this is a very good team. The Buckeyes are currently favored by 17. If Ohio State wins they go to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1996 (and the first time for Coach Tressel), both happen, take Ohio State and don’t worry about the points.
Game #2: #24 West Virginia at #5 Cincinnati. It doesn’t seem to matter who Cincinnati puts at QB, they just score a lot of points and keep winning. This is a very talented and well-coached team. The Bearcats are well ahead in every offensive category and West Virginia is simply over-rated (even at #24). Cincinnati is focused and by far the better team. The Bearcats are favored at home by 9. Cincinnati takes another step to getting into the BCS Championship game, take the Bearcats.
Game #3: #24 Stanford at #9 USC. On paper Stanford is better in every major offensive category, and this is a very good offensive team. The Cardinal’s main problem, their defense means no lead is safe. The Trojans are clearly rebuilding this year after send eight defensive starters to the NFL (all of whom are starting in the pros) and several offensive players, including a starting NFL QB. No college program can normally take those loses of personnel and expect to still be a top 10 team. Another issue this season for USC has been key injuries, especially on offense. But they are getting healthy again, probably for the first time since they played their best game of the season against Cal (a 30-3 final). The Trojans are currently favored by 11. The Trojans still have a little outside chance at the Rose Bowl, but must win out with some help to face Ohio State again, but they are more likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl. Take the Trojans in a high scoring game.
Game #4: #16 Utah at #4 TCU. These two teams traditionally play a low scoring defensive game and the Utes have won the last four meetings. This is the first time since the early 1960’s that TCU is being mentioned in National discussions. This is an excellent team on both sides of the ball and playing at home gives them even more of an advantage instead of the high elevation at Utah. This is a team that could be in the National Championship game (and we are still hoping for a TCU vs. Cincinnati game in the Rose Bowl). The Horned Frogs are currently favored by 20. While 20 points might be a little much to cover, TCU wins this game and makes a statement that the Mountain West, with four consistently good to great teams, belongs in the BCS system. Take the Horned Frogs.
Game #5: #17 Arizona at California. At one point this year Cal was being talked about as a National Champion and their star running back as a Heisman winner. Well, both possibilities are gone, especially with their running back suffering a serious concussion last week. Quietly Arizona has climbed up in the rankings and are playing well. However, this is a team that traditionally has not traveled well. Coach Tedford at Cal will bring his team back from an embarrassing loss last week. The Wildcats are currently favored by only 3. I think the Golden Bears circle the wagons and come away with a win, take Cal and the points.
Various Rantings:
Two historically great programs and their coaches (Charles Weiss at Notre Dame and Rich Rodriguez at Michigan) are in serious trouble. Notre Dame’s record of 6-3 doesn’t look terrible (at least not as bad as the Wolverines 5-5, but 1-5 in conference) but when you look closer they are really not far from being 2-7. They end their season with #13 Pittsburgh this week, then a very tough-minded (something decidedly lacking in the Irish) UConn Husky team and then end on a long trip to the Farm at Stanford to play a very good #25 Cardinal. The Irish could easily end with two or three more loses. If they end with two more loses, Weiss will have a worse overall record for his tenure than the two previous coaches (Bob Davie and Ty Willingham) who were both fired. Despite the reported $14 million buyout required, if Weiss is 7-5 at the end of the season and playing in the Whatchamacallit Bowl against one of the Sisters of Mercy schools, the pressure will be too great on the administration and Weiss will be unemployed (perhaps even before their bowl game).
The situation with Rodriguez is a little more complex. He inherited a team with little to no talent and perhaps no talent to operate his new offensive scheme. By all rights he should get at least four year to turn this program around. But, if he loses to #20 Wisconsin and #11 Ohio State, which would put Michigan in the basement of the Big 10; that added with the fact that the alumni doesn’t like him, he has ethical baggage, and he’s got Michigan into at least a minor NCAA investigation, all of it could be too much. While he may survive to come back next year (but unless he beats Ohio State, I don’t think so), a third season with a losing record and no noticeable improvement, will be his last; and another embarrassing loss to a low-flying team, and he probably would be fired mid-season.
Well, last week was pretty much a disaster, fortunately I don’t claim to be a prophet or I would be hiding from large boulders about now. 1-4 is by far my worst week of the year and now I’m 29-19 for the season. There are only a couple of quality games this week as #1 Florida (vs Vandy) and #2 Texas (vs UCF) pretty much have walkovers (after actually putting together nice games last week). But there are a couple of intriguing games and for a few teams absolute must win games.
Game #1: #16 Ohio State at #11 Penn State. The is a game between two teams that are in a bind. Ohio State is in the best shape. If they win out, they go to the Rose Bowl (oddly Jim Tressell has never coached in a Rose Bowl game). The downside is that winning out is three games in a row against Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan. Penn State, since they lost to Iowa, a lot of need help. They have to beat OSU and then hope for the Buckeyes to do them a favor and beat Iowa and hope Iowa can manage to also lose to Northwestern this week or Minnesota in their last game (with Iowa anything is possible, the Hawkeyes are probably the shakiest undefeated team in memory). A loss eliminates any BCS Bowl chance for OSU and probably Penn State (their weak schedule is catching up with them in the computers). OSU has lost their placekicker for the season, but he really wasn't a front line kicker and either of the two backups should be fine.The Nittany Lions are currently favored by 4. Ohio State is going to be a much better team next year than they are this year, but they will be the better team at Beaver Stadium this week. Take the Buckeyes and the points.
Game #2: #9 LSU at #3 Alabama. Alabama has played with a decided lack of style points in the last few weeks and probably have the suspended SEC officiating crew to thank for still being undefeated. They are coming off a bye-week and host LSU. The winner gets has the straight line to play in the SEC Championship game (at this point against Florida). This game will come down to LSU defense being able to stop the rush and if they can get a lead the advantage swings way over to the Tigers. The Tide is favored at home by 8. With a loss the Tigers are done in terms of a BCS game. I’m not convinced that the Tide has enough offense, in a very low scoring game take LSU and the points.
Game #3: #8 Oregon at Stanford. Stanford has a very good and upcoming team and they are very difficult to play at the Farm. Oregon is coming off perhaps the biggest win in the history of their program and they might have a letdown. On paper everything is Oregon, who right now are the best team in the country. The Ducks are currently favored by 9. Oregon should win this game, but it may be close, this will be a big test to see how they respond to success. Right now Oregon looks good enough to beat anyone. The Ducks win, but probably not with many style points.
Game #4: #12 USC at Arizona State. Two conference losses means the Trojans (absent some really strange happenings) are not going to the Rose Bowl. But, since they are USC (and are still at the magical #12 in the BCS standings), another BCS game, like the Fiesta Bowl, is a distinct possibility even with two losses. However, another loss and they will be through for the big bowl games. The Trojans pretty much got their helmets handed to them last week and all their weaknesses were exposed. The Trojans are currently favored by 11. All reports are that the Trojans had about the fiercest competitive practice in a long time. While this is a competitive ASU team, look for USC to ensure that they move up a notch or two in the rankings, take the Trojans.
Game #5: Navy at #22 Notre Dame. Notre Dame has managed to climb back into the Top 25 and now they are talking about a BCS game if they can win out (I think the chances they'll move up that far in the rankings is not likely and if they did it would be highly suspicious). It seems that whenever they start talking like this bad things happen. Historically, Notre Dame can put a “W” next to the Navy game sometime an hour or so after the schedule comes out, Navy has only one once (two years ago) in the last zillion meetings. The Irish have a huge advantage in passing, but their rush defense is very shaky and that’s what the Middies are all about. The annual meeting of the two last big independent teams (with their BCS exemptions). The Irish are currently favored by 11. Upset Alert of the Week! Take the Middies and the points.
Various Rantings:
The top two teams (Florida and Texas) last week finally began to play like top teams. But how Iowa, despite being undefeated, can possibly be ranked #4 (they’ve been behind, they were last week, in the second half of 6 of their games) is apparently beyond the belief of even their coach who remarked he was glad the computers can’t actually see the games. I think a very compelling case could be made that Iowa is not as good a team as Cincinnati, TCU, or Boise State (at this point it looks like either TCU or Boise State will get left out of a BCS game even if they are undefeated). Iowa, or whoever wins the Big 10 will get in the Rose Bowl, but it will be interesting to see if the Conference’s odd scheduling (which sees them ending their season about two weeks before everyone else) has a big effect their teams on the final BCS rankings.